"Waiting in the boudoir" - is the key word of 5g industry in 2018. Although we can always hear the progress of various 5g standards, policies, tests and terminals from time to time, in fact, 5g was a carnival in the industry before the issuance of 5g commercial license, which is still a long way from landing. The good news is that 5g licenses are expected to be issued in the first half of 2019, possibly in the second quarter.
Favorable policies
From December 19 to 21, the central economic work conference was held in Beijing. Among the 20 key tasks in 2019 clearly put forward at the conference, "accelerating the pace of 5g commerce" ranked third, which is rare.
Also in December, the Ministry of industry and information technology announced that the three operators had officially obtained the national 5g medium and low frequency test frequency license.
The specific spectrum is divided as follows:
China Telecom has obtained 5g test frequency resources with a bandwidth of 3400mhz-3500mhz and a total bandwidth of 100MHz; China Mobile has obtained 5g test frequency resources in 2515mhz-2675mhz and 4800mhz-4900mhz bands, of which 2515-2575mhz, 2635-2675mhz and 4800-4900mhz bands are new bands, and 2575-2635mhz bands are the existing TD-LTE (4G) bands of China Mobile;
China Unicom has obtained 5g test frequency resources with a bandwidth of 3500mhz-3600mhz and a total bandwidth of 100MHz.
Only in terms of frequency band, China Mobile has obtained 160MHz bandwidth in 2.6GHz band and 100MHz bandwidth in 4.9ghz band. The coverage of 2.6GHz band is wider than that of 3.5GHz band, and China Mobile has more bandwidth resources as a whole. However, the actual situation is that the 2.6GHz and 4.9ghz industrial chains are not mature. The preliminary tests of domestic and international operators are more concentrated in the 3.5GHz if band.
Spectrum landing is a gratifying progress for 5g industry. Although operators have long expected 5g frequency band, the final spectrum division is a game between all parties. Finally, the three operators have obtained a relatively balanced spectrum scheme.
In addition, in 2018, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of finance also issued a notice document on reducing some radio frequency occupation fee standards, implemented the frequency occupation fee standard of 5g public mobile communication system, implemented the preferential policy of "reduction and exemption in the first three years and gradually in place in the next three years", and reduced the frequency occupation fee standard of public mobile communication system above 3000MHz, It relatively reduces the capital burden of operators, although the spectrum occupation fee is not a large expenditure.
Summary: 5g is not only a grand event of the communication industry, but also received unprecedented attention at the national level. To a large extent, the concept of interconnection of all things in the future requires 5g industry as infrastructure, 2G following, 3G catching up and 4G parallel. China is expected to lead other countries in the 5g era.
Standards are still being developed
5g standard is unprecedented complex, which also brings unprecedented challenges to standard formulation, so that 5g R15 standard is divided into three versions, namely, the early version ('early 'drop): non standalone (NSA) specification (option-3 Series), and ASN. 1 was frozen in March 2018; Major version ('main 'drop): standalone (SA) specification (option-2 Series), ASN.1 Frozen in September 2018; Delayed version ('late 'drop): other migration architectures (Option-4, option-7 and 5g-5g dual connection), ASN. 1 will be frozen in June 2019.
Updated 3GPP 5g standard schedule
3GPP officials announced at the TSG ran plenary meeting held in Sorrento from December 10 to 13 that the General Assembly adopted the decision to delay the freezing of R15 late drop version standard, and R16 standard was postponed accordingly. However, 3GPP also said that the standard delay will not have any impact on the first 5g deployment, and the compatibility of devices and networks deployed based on the previous standard will not be affected, and can be solved through software upgrade.
It is worth mentioning that there are three recognized 5g scenarios in the industry:
EmbB: Enhance Mobile Broadband for VR / AR, ultra-high definition video and other mobile broadband services requiring high speed and large flow;
Mmtc: large-scale machine communication, for large-scale Internet of things and other services;
Urllc: ultra high reliability and low delay / delay, for unmanned, industrial automation and other services.
R15 standard mainly aims at embB and some urllc scenarios, so the current industrial chain only focuses on embB and urllc, and the subsequent R16 standard will be further refined.
Summary: as a standards organization, 3GPP's standard setting has never been 100% considered from the perspective of technology or cost, but more a game between countries. China, Europe and the United States are the main wrestlers, and Japan, South Korea and other countries also have a certain voice. The main participants in standard setting are also the main manufacturers of 5g industrial chain, and the standard is synchronized with 5g commercial schedule.
The test progresses continuously
At the third 5g innovation and Development Summit Forum in September 2018, the imt-2020 (5g) promotion group released the latest test results of the third stage of China's 5g technology R & D test. The mt-2020 (5g) promotion group said that many equipment manufacturers at home and abroad have jointly built a complete indoor and outdoor integrated test environment, comprehensively carried out interconnection test, and effectively promoted the maturity of the industrial chain.
As of September, the third stage NSA (independent Networking) test has been completed, and the SA (independent Networking) test has been fully started. Six system manufacturers including Ericsson, Huawei, Shanghai Nokia bell, Samsung, China Information Technology Group and ZTE, chip manufacturers such as Qualcomm, Intel and Ziguang zhanrui, as well as instrument manufacturers such as rod, Schwartz and Shide Technology participated in the third phase of the test.
The imt-2020 (5g) promotion team announced the overall completion of the third stage NSA test in October
Different from the "private" model in the United States, China promotes the rapid development of 5g industry from the national level. Wang Zhiqin, leader of imt-2020 (5g) promotion team, previously introduced that the third phase of China's 5g technology test was officially launched in Q4, 2017. From Q4, 2017 to Q3, 2018, non independent Networking (NSA) was conducted first, followed by independent Networking (SA) test (q1-q3, 2018), and the indoor and outdoor tests of NSA architecture were completed. In q3-q4 of 2018, complete the indoor and outdoor tests of SA Architecture); The "indoor + outdoor" test was conducted in the same period, mainly testing 3.5GHz, 4.9ghz and millimeter wave. Terminal test and interoperability test are planned to be completed by the end of 2018.
According to the latest news in January, new progress has been made in the testing of 5g core network in the third phase of China's 5g technology R & D test. Huawei took the lead in completing the security technology test of 5g core network with a 100% pass rate, and ZTE took the lead in completing the performance stability test and security function test of core network in the third phase of China's 5g technology R & D test.
Summary: from 2G to 5g, the number of operators and system equipment providers has changed a lot. Operators are on-off and on-off. With the improvement of communication technology threshold, fewer and fewer system equipment providers are qualified to enter 5g. The test progress of major manufacturers is different. Earlier represents technical strength and hopes to obtain more contracts. Huawei and ZTE are in the lead, But other manufacturers are also keeping up with the progress of 5g test group.
5g arrangement of three operators ready
Operators are still the core of 5g industrial chain. Without the 5g network of operators as the basis, 5g is a castle in the air.
China Telecom officially launched the "Hello 5g" action plan during the Tianyi ecological Expo of this year's annual conference, and put forward proposals from the four aspects of standards, networks, applications and terminals. China Telecom is expected to carry out 5g scale tests in 17 cities, start the external cooperation of 5g terminal open laboratory in March 2019, and the first batch of 1200 5g test machines will be released.
China Mobile will carry out 5g pilot network construction in five cities in Q3, 2018, and carry out key technology application, commercial verification and business demonstration network construction. It is expected that the 5g demonstration network will be expanded to 12 cities in Q1 and 2019.
China Unicom said that it will carry out 5g business demonstration and network test in 17 pilot cities. In January 2019, China Unicom will complete the procurement of test terminals and release 5g terminal NSA in the first quarter of 2019. In the second quarter of 2019, the trial commercial use of 5g terminal NSA will be realized, and 5g new terminals will be released in the same period. In the third quarter of 2019, China Unicom plans to complete the trial commercial use of 5g terminal NSA / SA. In the fourth quarter of 2019, 5g commercial terminals were launched on a large scale.
Summary: the time when the three operators officially launched the commercial 5g network is basically similar. According to the previous news, the three operators are expected to achieve 5g pre commercialization in 2019 and scale commercialization in 2020. 5g commercialization still needs to wait for the starting gun of the operator.
chip
There are mainly 6 manufacturers capable of providing 5g chips, namely Intel, Qualcomm, Samsung, Huawei, MediaTek and Ziguang zhanrui.
Intel officially released the XMM 8160 5g modem on November 13, 2018. The XMM 8160 5g will support a peak speed of up to 6GB per second. The first smartphone using the modem will be available in the first half of 2020. It is expected that Apple iPhone will wait for the next version 8161 to match the new product release time in the second half of 2020, At the same time, Intel is also the only chip manufacturer to participate in and complete the first, second and third phase trials of 5g technology research and development in China.
At the third Xiaolong technology summit, Qualcomm officially released the Xiaolong 855 mobile platform to the world. In conjunction with the Qualcomm Xiaolong X50 5g modem series, Qualcomm qtm052 millimeter wave antenna module integrating RF transceiver, RF front end and antenna unit.
Samsung announced in August that it has developed the industry's first 5g baseband, exynos modem 5100, which fully meets the latest standard of 3GPP (3rd generation partnership project) release 15 5g air interface. The baseband is based on 10 nm process and can be compatible with 2G, 3G and 4G.
As early as February this year, Huawei released the first 3GPP standard 5g commercial chip Balong 5g01 (Balong 5g01) and the first 3GPP standard 5g commercial terminal Huawei 5g CPE (user terminal) based on the chip.
MediaTek also recently demonstrated its first 5g multimode integrated baseband chip Helio M70, which supports 2 / 3 / 4 / 5G. Helio M70 not only supports 5g NR, but also supports independent Networking (SA) and non independent Networking (NSA), sub-6ghz band, high power terminal (hpue) and other 5g key technologies. It meets the latest standard specification of 3GPP release 15 and has 5Gbps transmission rate, And leading the industry to support carrier aggregation function.
Ziguang zhanrui is expected to launch 5g chip with high performance price ratio in 2019 and 5g single chip with high performance price in 2020, and will realize full coverage of high-end and middle-end. In addition, Ziguang zhanrui is also laying out 5g millimeter wave and RFFE.
Summary: the earlier the chip is released, the more dominant it is. Chip manufacturers objectively determine the 5g mobile phone release of terminal manufacturers. As an industry with high threshold, other manufacturers are trying to encroach on Qualcomm's market. 5g is not a historical opportunity window.
Terminal and Application
If the whole communication industry is regarded as a "village", 5g can really be regarded as the "hope of the whole village". 5g is an era of real integration of computing and communication, and naturally shoulders the expectations of the public. According to the research of Guotai Junan Securities, the overall ROE (return on capital) of the communication industry decreased slightly in 2018. 4G network investment is coming to an end, the capital expenditure of operators is declining, and 5g is waiting for upstream chips, optical devices, RF devices, midstream base stations, transmission equipment, network optimization, antennas, and then downstream industries.
According to the white paper on the economic and social impact of 5g issued by the Chinese Academy of information and communications, the direct output and indirect output driven by 5g will reach 6.3 trillion yuan and 10.6 trillion yuan respectively in 2030. In terms of direct output, in 2020, the official commercial use of 5g is expected to drive the direct output of about 484 billion yuan that year, which will increase to 3.3 trillion yuan and 6.3 trillion yuan in 2025 and 2030 respectively, with an average annual compound growth rate of 29%. In terms of indirect output, in 2020, 2025 and 2030, 5g will drive indirect output of 1.2 trillion yuan, 6.3 trillion yuan and 10.6 trillion yuan respectively, with an average annual compound growth rate of 24%.
The initial form and function of 5g terminal will not change greatly. It will mainly focus on the scenario of large bandwidth and low delay. After that, 5g terminal will move to the pan terminal mode. VR devices, wearable terminals, UAVs, vehicle terminals, intelligent water meters and other terminals will carry 5g network into the family and industry.
The industry is generally optimistic about 5g application scenarios. 5g can be applied in many fields such as home entertainment, intelligent manufacturing and smart city. The technical characteristics of 5g put some previously envisaged scenarios and applications into practice. The applications of enhanced mobile broadband include VR, AR, 8K TV and cloud play; Applications of mass machine communication include smart city, smart agriculture, smart grid, etc; The applications of ultra-high reliability and low delay communication include Internet of vehicles, intelligent manufacturing, wireless medical treatment and so on.
The first wave of 5g boom in 2019 will begin with the issuance of licenses. With the further deepening of trial commercial use, we can see and hear more news of 5g landing, but there is no need to worry. At present, 5g is still in the exploratory stage, and it will take several years for communication technology to mature from commercial use. 4G is not fully mature until commercial use in 2014. Give the industry some time and space, and 5g is coming.
Top recommendations:
NXP lpc54018 Internet of things module om40007 enables your solution to land faster
Texas Instruments msp-exp430fr2355 launchpad development kit makes design and development simple and intuitive
Microchip technology sr087 power supply demonstration board, a new choice of switching power supply
Bosch bmi088 high performance IMU works with you to improve the flight and navigation experience
Roma semiconductor sensorshield-evk-003 Evaluation Kit, a board with "seed and material"
Intel realsense depth camera D400 series "more convenient secret" is waiting for you to find out
Analog devices eval-adxl362 evaluation board gives developers and designers more choices
Cypress Semiconductor psoc6 ble development kit, beautiful design is about to happen
STMi
Our other product:
