After over three months of repeatedly see-saw, sniper Broadcom Qualcomm's acquisition of World War II giants, has entered the final decisive stage.
February 9, Qualcomm announced that the members of the Board of Directors voted unanimously to reject the $ 121 billion takeover offer after the Broadcom modified.
Broadcom then responded that this is "the best and final" price.
So far, the two sides difficult for them to have room to maneuver to the party completely out in the end the most likely outcome.
The final battle of the war, is a high-pass general meeting of shareholders will be held March 6 meeting. By then, Qualcomm shareholders will vote on it is to continue to support the existing directors, board of directors or the use of recombinant candidate nominated by Broadcom.
No matter who wins, the two sides in several rounds of the game behind, whether it is a choice to mobilize political and business power, seize the time and opportunity, the length of interests, as well as the industrial chain to win over and betrayal, are worthy of interpretation of a thorough analysis of classic case.
Etc. After the dust settles, I will write a long article, as the recovery disk.
But now, I am more concerned about is that in the former Qualcomm shareholders' meeting formally convened, the last three weeks, this battle also variables which might exist?
If the successful acquisition of Broadcom Qualcomm, will refresh the highest scale mergers and acquisitions in the technology industry's history, creating a total market capitalization of more than $ 200 billion semiconductor giant, and the pattern and go global communications industry and the whole technology industry, a huge impact.
So, behind this acquisition, Qualcomm and Broadcom is not just wrestling, but also involves the interests of different countries, industries and companies, they are involved in the inning.
Now, with Qualcomm and Broadcom's bottom line clear, it is more likely to reverse the outcome of the power has been turned off.
Moreover, the key card, in the hands of China.
The problem is that China or not the cards, or when the cards?
One
February 9, is a critical turning point.
Since November 2017, Broadcom filed a formal offer to Qualcomm, the two sides have had several rounds of exploratory and respond. But before that, the attitude of the two sides, as well as the pricing of Qualcomm, have been variable.
No one knows, Broadcom will not raise the offer price again, if improved, Qualcomm will not accept ......
Before these two issues clearly, the outside world is afraid to fully bet on either one, because it may become for others to do awake, finally Lidaitaojiang.
But now, the two sides finally demarcated their own bottom line: Qualcomm explicitly rejected the offer, Broadcom clearly no longer raise its offer, the two sides are no longer retreat, the choice in the hands of shareholders to decide.
This means that the situation is finally clarified, the future trend of evolution, but also return to the most basic logic: If you can prove that Qualcomm, the company situation for the better, the value can continue to grow, you can get more shareholder support; the other hand, if proven Broadcom Qualcomm is facing a crisis, long-term situation is unknown, then the shareholders are more likely to support Broadcom.
So, the next three months, the strength of both the focus will be on the game:
Policy level: push for Qualcomm's good or bad policies, such as the audit by its significant matters;
Performance levels: improve or weaken Qualcomm's future earnings expectations.
The most important is that the two levels of the game, will no longer be Qualcomm or Broadcom own personal fate, but to the showdown of their allies.
Two
Broadcom side of the card, there are two: one is Apple, an antitrust.
Among them, Apple is the top priority.
Broadcom is a company with looting style, company boss Chen Fuyang (Hock Tan) best at the acquisition and split the company, every time the annexation of a new company, will be the basis for long-term investment in R & D department eleven packaged to sell, leaving only most profitable business in the short term under.
Therefore, the industry generally believe that Apple as a close partner, if successful acquisition of Broadcom Qualcomm, Apple is expected to not only reduce some of the huge arrears Qualcomm royalties, there may be the opportunity to accumulate devoured Qualcomm patents in key areas such as baseband.
Regardless of whether Apple and Broadcom reach alliance in action, their attacks on Qualcomm reflects a high degree of consistency: for example, Broadcom is the use of Apple and Qualcomm patent war broke out, Qualcomm performance and share price affected the opportunity to Qualcomm proposed offer; and on February 6, KGI analyst's report that Apple plans to completely abandon Qualcomm in 2018, the iPhone baseband chip orders all to supply Intel, this action can also be deemed assists to Broadcom tender offer.
However, Apple and Qualcomm has been completely decorum, expand mutual lengthy patent litigation, so at the operational level, Apple should find reason to add more high-pass blocking has been more difficult.
So, the next step is more likely that Apple teamed Broadcom and other potential allies, or push other countries to investigate antitrust penalties against Qualcomm.
For example, after the January 24, the EU announced Qualcomm antitrust fine, which testify information is derived from Apple.
If the next two or three weeks, Apple continues to initiate new proceedings against Qualcomm, or in other countries, the new Qualcomm suffered bad policy, it is not surprising.
Three
Qualcomm side of the card, a new technology, a reconciliation, one is Chinese.
Currently, it is a new round of technological revolution eve of the outbreak, 5G, networking, emerging field of big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, etc., are breaking growth.
For example, 5G. Iterative communication technology is usually a 10-year period, now is the start of a new cycle of the tide 5G, 5G will start commercial trials in 2018, it began large-scale commercial worldwide in 2019. Is expected to 2035, 5G will bring 12 trillion US dollars of economic growth and create 22 million jobs.
The Internet of Things is expected to open a large-scale, fast-growing new markets, according to Qualcomm estimated that by 2020, it is calculated in the field of automotive, networking and mobile services market can scale will reach $ 66 billion.
Whether or 5G things, Qualcomm has a rich heritage. 5G in the field of Qualcomm's research and development preparation has been close to 10 years, while in the field of things, upon completion of the advantages of the acquisition of NXP, Qualcomm will also be further strengthened.
Good information in this regard, there is a very suitable release node: February 26th, the annual MWC (Mobile World Congress) will be carried out in Barcelona, Spain. Barring unforeseen circumstances, in the meantime, Qualcomm and its partners will be more significant progress in technology and commercial release.
At the same time, a noteworthy events are: Qualcomm on February 1 announced that it has expanded worldwide patent cross-licensing agreement with Samsung signed. As part of the agreement, Samsung will stop its Qualcomm Seoul High Court intervention on the Korean Fair Trade Commission (KFTC) decided to appeal the case to the.
Reach this agreement is a signal of reconciliation Qualcomm and Samsung reached. It means that Samsung will expand cooperation with Qualcomm, Broadcom and the party will not stand Apple, Qualcomm insult to injury.
One less enemy, more than a friend.
However, compared to all other factors, the potential impact on the Qualcomm the biggest variable, is still only one: China.
On the one hand, China has become a high-pass around the world, the biggest market, not one. Long-term roots in the Chinese market, to maintain close cooperation with the Chinese chain of Qualcomm, positions and interests has been highly consistent with the Chinese mobile phone industry, and even can be said that a prosperity, a loss for both sides.
It is also for this reason, most major Chinese mobile phone brands, have a collective rush to the rescue with practical action Qualcomm.
For example, on January 25, OPPO, vivo, millet, Lenovo four companies have signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Qualcomm in the next three years (2019 - 2021), four companies will total to Qualcomm procurement not less than $ 2 billion worth of RF front-end components.
At this critical point in time to deal with Broadcom hostile takeover, more than to sign MOU with Chinese partners, it has become a high-pass performance expectations prove Board of industry influence and important documents to the shareholders.
On the other hand, this acquisition NXP Qualcomm significant impact on capital transactions, reached its final approval is needed in China, the United States, Russia, European Union, South Korea and other nine countries and regions, has received the approval of eight, leaving only under China has not yet made a decision.
If you get Chinese approval, Qualcomm completed the acquisition of NXP, which will complete the expansion of the automotive chip market and further consolidate our leading position in the mobile industry, automotive, networking, security, radio, Internet, etc., to enhance long-term performance expectations.
At the same time, its market capitalization also increased significantly due to the merger, to further improve the Broadcom offer complete financial pressure. Broadcom hostile takeover determination and ability will be a huge hit, and may even be a direct abortion.
Qualcomm, this is the moment the most important and decisive a card.
Four
So, China should be how to fight this card it?
The first thing to determine is that China should take sides.
In this regard, I have had in-depth analysis in December 2017, was detailed in the article "If annexation Broadcom Qualcomm, Chinese mobile phone industry is in danger."
In simple terms it is that China can not support the close relationship with Trump, only concerned with important customers such as Apple, Samsung Broadcom, nor to "watch a movie" wait and see attitude, but should have firm support form close symbiotic relationship with Chinese industry chain Qualcomm.
And it is a high-pass acquisition NXP event itself, but also conducive to Qualcomm Internet of things, deepening the automotive electronics and other fields, and strengthen cooperation with Chinese industry, help China's automotive electronics, automotive networking, networking industry achieve catch-up and lead.
This is also the common judgment of the industry: Chinese regulatory authorities to release acquired by Qualcomm, NXP, will not have much resistance, now the main problem lies in when to approve.
You may now have:
In a few days ago through March 6, let Qualcomm and NXP plans to merge the official arrival. This will be a decisive force in support of Qualcomm thwart Broadcom's hostile takeover attempt, the high-pass can remain independent development, Qualcomm and China continue to follow the industry model of cooperation with more in-depth relationship.
After March 6, after the victory at Qualcomm through. Because of the uncertainty, Qualcomm shareholders Chinese government's attitude may exist concerns about Qualcomm and merger prospects NXP, even in crucial showdown March 6, the stand Broadcom side, to support restructuring the board of directors, in order to ensure their own short-term interests .
After March 6, after the victory by Broadcom. By this time again it has little significance, because Broadcom is likely to abandon the acquisition of NXP.
Rejected Qualcomm's acquisition of NXP, the probability is very small possibility, if occurred, would be a major blow to Qualcomm, Broadcom to enhance the success of the intended merger of Asia.
Overall, the most favorable situation of Chinese industry, China is a high-pass before the shareholders meeting, explicitly approved by the publication of the results.
Original Address: https: //www.eeboard.com/news/qualcomm-39/
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