"The future is beautiful, and the present is cruel. NB IOT has gone through three years. In these three years, many people have gathered their hopes and expectations. When can China's NB IOT market break out?
NB IOT has been supported and responded by most operators, communication equipment manufacturers, chip manufacturers and terminal manufacturers in the world since 3GPP reached an agreement at the ran plenary session in September 2015, which indicates that the world-wide Internet of things communication standard has been produced and will bring huge business opportunities to the whole industrial chain.
In order to cooperate with industrial transformation and upgrading and detonate new economic growth points, operators take NB IOT Internet of things as a breakthrough and open large-scale NB IOT module bidding again and again to accelerate NB IOT application and industrial development. As a result, the price shopping of module manufacturers has been promoted. In the past two years, the module price has been reduced from 70 yuan to 20 yuan, and the Nb IOT chip price has been reduced from 5 US dollars to less than 2 US dollars. It's really a death before graduation.
According to the market, Huawei Hisilicon launched the first domestic NB IOT chip boudica120 in 2017. So far, it has shipped 20 million chips, while the total shipments of other domestic NB IOT chip manufacturers do not exceed 10 million.
Reality is far lower than expected.
What are the reasons that hinder the outbreak of Nb IOT market
According to the latest data released by GSMA, most of the global cellular Internet of things connections in 2018 came from the existing 2G / 3G / 4G, the total number of Internet of things connections reached 760 million, and the number of Nb IOT Internet of things connections was less than 10%; However, with the development of time, Nb IOT / EMTC is expected to gradually become the mainstream connection mode in 2025, and the number of Nb IOT / EMTC Internet of things connections will reach 1.8 billion. Thanks to the vigorous promotion of the Chinese government, it is estimated that the Chinese market accounts for about 40% of the global market.
Number of global cellular Internet of things connections (unit: million); Source: GSMA, Internet of things think tank (Cartography)
A technical standard needs a process from establishment to maturity, and the transformation from mature technical standard to industrial standard needs the consensus and cooperation of upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain. No one knows which year the Nb IOT market will break out in the seven years from 2018 to 2025, but relevant analysis points out that there are four main reasons for hindering or delaying the outbreak of Nb IOT Market:
1. NB IOT network coverage is limited
In 2017, the Ministry of industry and information technology required telecom enterprises to strengthen the construction and deployment of Nb IOT network, realize the deployment of 400000 NB IOT base stations by the end of 2017 and 1.5 million base stations by 2020. At present, the three operators have deployed nearly one million NB IOT base stations. Among them, China Telecom has built the world's largest NB IOT network, with more than 400000 NB IOT base stations. However, compared with 2G / 3G / 4G networks, the coverage is still very limited, affecting the user experience.
2. NB IOT information security risk
The Internet of things will make our life convenient and beautiful, but information security is ahead of schedule. The development of Nb IOT not only makes the application more intelligent, but also brings information security risks. We must pay attention to the establishment of security system from the application layer to each endpoint in the Internet of things. The establishment of Nb IOT information security system requires all participants in the whole ecosystem to solve and establish together from network equipment, terminal data acquisition module, data transmission and system scheme. The establishment of Nb IOT information security system also requires time and process.
3. NB IOT power consumption is not ideal
One of the main advantages of Nb IOT is low power consumption. In the current Internet of things products, 2G module is generally used. The power consumption of Nb IOT is slightly better than 2G, but it has no absolute advantage in medium frequency and high-frequency real-time use. There is no significant difference in power consumption between the two. The power consumption of Nb IOT deep standby (PSM mode) is similar to that of 2G power down mode. On the same main chip platform, Nb IOT module is about 5 yuan more expensive than 2G module, and the user's enthusiasm for replacement is not high. With the current power consumption of Nb IOT module, the battery standby time can not support up to 10 years, so many new applications can not afford it.
4. NB IOT commercial without profit
Even if the operator turns on the high-frequency service function, the annual NB IOT tariff can be increased to 35-40 yuan. Although the ARPU value of the Internet of things business (average revenue per user) is increased, the direct revenue contribution to the operator is still very limited. Assuming that the total number of connections of the three operators is 1 billion, under the most ideal tariff, the ARPU value of 40 yuan / year corresponds to the revenue of 40 billion yuan. Compared with the revenue volume of 140 billion yuan of the three operators in 2018, the revenue from Nb IOT tariff is still not worth mentioning.
The quotation of Nb IOT single-mode module has been less than 20 yuan, and the cost is there. It is no longer profitable for module enterprises, so they have to force chip manufacturers and component manufacturers. Due to the weak willingness of consumer end users to pay the bill, the price elasticity of Nb IOT demand is very small, the price drops sharply, the demand does not increase significantly, the economies of scale are not realized, and no one benefits in the whole industrial chain, which further affects the market promotion of Nb IOT.
What are the market opportunities for NB IOT applications
NB IOT makes the market optimistic with its low power consumption, large capacity, highly reliable data transmission, penetration of building materials and standard unified wireless network. At the same time, Nb IOT technology can eliminate the intermediate data collector and directly transmit data according to a fixed time interval, so as to improve convenience and reduce cost.
NB IOT will be widely used in intelligent meter reading, fire control system, intelligent parking, vehicle tracking, logistics monitoring, intelligent agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, intelligent wear, smart family, smart community, smart city and other application fields. The following are the three NB IOT applications with the highest market acceptance:
Smoke detector
At present, the smoke detector is the product with the most matching and application of Nb IOT.
The fire department has requirements for the installation of smoke detectors in buildings, which are densely distributed, resulting in high routing difficulty and high cost. NB IOT can help solve this problem.
NB IOT supports massive connections. The sensor detects smoke in real time. Once the smoke concentration exceeds the standard, it will directly send information to the background through NB IOT.
NB IOT has low power consumption and long standby time, which can reduce installation and maintenance costs; In addition, the signal has strong penetration and can cover remote corners of buildings.
Water gas meter
GPRS intelligent meter reading solves the problem of manual meter reading of traditional mechanical water and gas meter, and Nb IOT solves the disadvantages of GPRS intelligent meter reading.
GPRS communication base station has small user capacity, high power consumption and poor signal. NB IOT solves this problem.
In terms of business, the reported data of water and gas meter can be reported once a day at most, and some even once a month. Therefore, the working mode of Nb IOT is very suitable for this business mode.
NB IOT meter reading inherits GPRS function in function and has 50-100 times more access than 2G / 3G / 4G. This is undoubtedly a better choice for cells with dense meter loading.
Intelligent lock
As the entrance product of smart home, smart lock will become a necessary smart security product for every household in the future.
NB IOT reduces unnecessary signaling through DRX (discontinuous reception) power saving technology, and does not accept paging information in PSM state to achieve the purpose of power saving, which can ensure the service life of the battery for more than 5 years.
NB IOT scheme is adopted, no gateway or route is required, and the intelligent lock terminal only needs one hop to directly connect to the base station of the operator, so as to ensure the network stability and security of the networked intelligent lock.
NB IOT signal penetrates the wall far more than the existing network. Even where the traditional network signal is bad, Nb IOT network can highly reliably realize "random password" through data transmission.
Source: China Telecom
What are the chip manufacturers of Nb IOT module
The chip manufacturers of Nb IOT module include NB IOT chip and Nb IOT RF front-end chip.
NB IOT chip manufacturer:
Domestic manufacturers: Huawei Hisilicon, Ziguang zhanrui (RDA), Taiwan MediaTek, ZTE microelectronics, Shanghai mobile core, innovation dimension, core wing information, pinecone electronics, zhilian'an, ASR and huiding technology
Foreign manufacturers: Qualcomm, Samsung, Altair, sikuan, Nordic, GCT, riot micro, CEVA
NB IOT chip manufacturers that have shipped in large quantities in the domestic market are Huawei Hisilicon, purple light zhanrui (RDA) and Taiwan MediaTek. ASR and huiding technology have strong strength, and their products are still under research and development. Jianna company had a strong market publicity before, but finally gave up.
At present, the foreign NB IOT market mainly adopts Qualcomm platform. It is expected that in the future, even abroad, Nb IOT market will be the world of Chinese chips.
Source: Internet of things think tank
NB IOT RF front-end chip manufacturer:
Domestic manufacturers: RDA, hantianxia, huizhiwei, Feixiang technology, sanwuwei
Foreign manufacturers: skyworks, qorvo
Sky and qorvo will eventually abandon China's NB IOT market. Compared with domestic RF front-end chips, the performance is almost the same, and the price has no advantage at all. In the domestic NB IOT module market, the RF front-end chips seen are basically domestic brands, and purple light zhanrui (RDA) is the main supplier, but it is surprising that vanchip and airoha can not be seen, which are the largest RF front-end chip companies in China. Therefore, the possible reason is that either vanchip and airoha can't see the Nb IOT market, or they are waiting for the opportunity to enter the Nb IOT market.
NB IOT is characterized by low power consumption, low voltage application is the trend, and the mainstream working voltage of RF front-end chip is about 2V. Huizhi micro's technical advantage is that it is deeply familiar with SOI process and develops competitive NB IOT RF front-end chip by using SOI RF characteristics and low voltage characteristics. Hantianxia has just released hs8018-31 CMOS PA for low voltage mode.
Sanwu micro's RF switch has entered the smart home market of the Internet of things. Its main product is 2.4g/5.8g WiFi FEM. It remains to be seen whether it will continue to enter the Nb IOT PA market.
Who will be the final winner of Nb IOT chip
Industry insiders believe that 2016 is the first year of Nb IOT business. Just as the mobile Internet yearned for the arrival of the 4G era in the past ten years, today's Internet of things also yearns for a strong NB IOT cellular Internet of things infrastructure network with deep coverage. The more optimistic about the future, the longer the introduction period of Nb IOT market, the more chip manufacturers will participate in this market. At present, the Nb IOT market is still in the introduction period, and domestic chip manufacturers want to seize this market opportunity and become the final winner in the Nb IOT market.
The chip industry generally believes that it is important to cut into the market first, but in fact, who first reaches the economic scale is the most important. Economic scale means that there will be an optimal production scale based on the existing production technical conditions. The optimal production scale is the production scale with the lowest cost and the largest profit. In the domestic NB IOT market, which chip manufacturer first reaches the economic scale, then this chip manufacturer will become the final winner in the Nb IOT market.
In order to further demonstrate this conclusion, it can be analyzed from the following four aspects:
1. The future mainstream of Nb IOT module is still single mode
At present, NB-IoT dual mode (NB-IoT + GSM or NB-IoT + eMTC) appears in the market, and NB-IoT three mode (NB-IoT+GSM+eMTC) is also proposed. According to industry analysis, the mainstream of the future development of the Internet of things is still NB IOT single mode, accounting for about 60% of the Internet of things market; NB IOT + EMTC dual mode may have some market segments. As for NB-IoT+GSM dual-mode and NB-IoT+GSM+eMTC three mode, personal judgement will only be a transitional product, and there will be no prospect.
NB IOT single mode is also divided into single frequency scheme and multi frequency scheme. NB IOT chip is the same, but the corresponding RF front-end chip is different. From the current application end, the demand for NB IOT single-mode module of single frequency scheme is similar to that of multi frequency scheme, which depends on the operator and the application of Nb IOT module terminal. The cost of multi frequency single-mode scheme is about 1 yuan lower than that of single frequency scheme, but it can cope with different operators and has great flexibility; A single frequency scheme can only correspond to a single operator.
2. NB IOT applications support massive connections and benefit from scale
NB IOT has the massive connection characteristics of 100000 users / cell. Due to the transmission application scenarios of low-frequency and small data packets, Nb IOT technology has been optimized. Compared with the PRB (physical resource block) bandwidth of 2G uplink 200kHz and 4G 180khz, the uplink carrier bandwidth of narrowband NB IOT is only 3.75/15khz, the equivalent power is greatly improved, and the channel capacity is increased by 50-100 times. NB IOT reduces the air interface signaling overhead and improves the spectrum efficiency; The base station adopts independent admission congestion control and the uplink and downlink information storage of the terminal, which improves the stability and reliability of information transmission.
NB IOT Internet of things subverts the value chain and ecological chain, and industrial value moves from the connection layer to the platform layer and application layer. At present, the promotion of Nb IOT market is dominated by operators. Only with scale can it be effective. In 2018, China mobile terminal Corporation released the procurement bidding of 5 million NB IOT single-mode modules; The procurement scale of Nb IOT communication module of China Unicom is 3 million pieces; China Telecom adopts regional bidding, and the procurement scale of Jiangsu Telecom is expected to be about 2 million NB IOT modules based on Hisilicon chips.
3. NB IOT modules have little difference, but they spell out the price
According to market statistics, there are more than 20 common NB IOT module manufacturers in China: Xiamen Qijun, Shanghai Yiyuan, Youfang technology, guanghetong, gaoxinxing, Wutong holding, ZTE IOT, Shanghai Yike, China Mobile Internet of things, MEG intelligence, Datang Mobile, smart smart, Longshang technology, Xinhua III, lilda, Shanghai KUANYI, smart Shanghai school, Weiwen, u-blox, Sierra wireless Jinyatuo, Talit, Ailian technology, Xiaorui technology, Shanghai Qingke, etc. The differences of Nb IOT modules are not big. They are basically standard products, and more than 90% are single-mode. Whether to support single frequency or multi frequency depends on how the module manufacturer corresponds to the operator.
When NB IOT module becomes a standard product, when there is little difference in performance and technical indicators, it is the module price, especially in the bidding of operators. The difference of performance indicators is not mainly determined by module manufacturers, but determined by NB IOT chip manufacturers. As long as the performance and technical indicators of chip manufacturers are similar, the performance and technical indicators of module manufacturers will not be much worse.
4. The technical difference of Nb IOT chip is small, and the key is power consumption and cost
NB IOT low rate, low power consumption, narrowband and broadband come at low cost. If the speed is low, there is no need for large cache or small cache
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