"As early as 25 years ago, I told you:" in a quarter century, one third of mankind will exchange audio, video and text with each other through a huge global network composed of hundreds of millions of people. At that time, all the information in the world can be obtained with one mobile phone, And anyone can express their new ideas, introduce a new product or convey an idea to a billion people at the same time. More importantly, the cost of doing so will be close to zero. " After listening to it, you should shake your head and look unbelievable. But now all this has come true.
25 years later, the Internet of things is expected to help mankind develop near zero cost production technology, which is bound to bring subversive changes to the world under the capitalist framework.
As early as 25 years ago, I told you: "in a quarter century, one third of mankind will exchange audio, video and text with each other through a huge global network composed of hundreds of millions of people. At that time, all the information in the world can be obtained with one mobile phone, And anyone can express their new ideas, introduce a new product or convey an idea to a billion people at the same time. More importantly, the cost of doing so will be close to zero. " After listening to it, you should shake your head and look unbelievable. But now all this has come true.
If I tell you again: "in 25 years from now, the energy you use to warm your home, run household appliances, start your business, drive your car, and even drive every unit of the global economy will be almost free." What would you think? In fact, millions of early adopters have lived such a life. They turn houses and businesses into micro power plants to collect renewable energy locally. Even if the fixed cost of installing solar and wind power collection equipment has not been recovered (usually within two to eight years), the marginal cost of collecting energy is close to zero.
Unlike uranium from fossil fuels and nuclear power, the sunlight on the roof, the wind blowing through buildings, the heat from the underground of the office, and kitchen waste that can be decomposed into biomass energy are almost free, but raw materials such as fossil fuels and glazes themselves must be obtained at a cost.
In addition, if almost all free information is used to manage almost free green energy, and then form a set of intelligent communication / energy combined infrastructure and infrastructure that can allow almost all enterprises in the world to connect together, so that these enterprises can share energy through the energy network spread across the continent, And produce and sell goods at a price much lower than that of today's global manufacturing giants? In fact, this situation has also begun to develop on a small scale: at present, hundreds of start-ups have begun to establish 3D printing business, produce 3D printing products at nearly zero marginal cost, supply the power required by Fablabs with their own green energy, and market their products on hundreds of global websites, Finally, cars that use their own green energy to supplement electricity or fuel cells as kinetic energy to transport their goods (we will soon discuss the initial fixed capital cost of establishing this collaborative infrastructure).
In addition, what if millions of students in the world who could not have had the opportunity to receive university education suddenly can study the courses of the world's most famous scholars free of charge and obtain formal credits for relevant studies? At present, this situation is also happening.
Finally, what if, with the replacement of labor in each industry, specialty and technical field by intelligent technology, enterprises can carry out most commercial activities in a civilized society in a smarter, more efficient and cheaper way than traditional labor, and finally rapidly reduce the marginal cost of labor for the production and distribution of goods and services to zero? This is also happening as tens of millions of workers have been replaced by intelligent technologies used in different industries and professions around the world. What should mankind do if a large number of manufacturing modes and professional workers disappear in the next two generations? More importantly, how will mankind define its future on earth? Some people in the intellectual field have begun to study this issue carefully, and it has also attracted public policy debate.
Internet of things connecting the world
The rising Internet of things can be called the first intelligent infrastructure revolution in history. This revolution will connect every machine, every enterprise, every resident and every car to an intelligent network composed of communication network, energy network and logistics network, and all three networks are embedded in a single operating system.
By 2030, the number of sensors connecting the Internet of things will reach 100 trillion
In the United States alone, 37 million digital smart meters provide real-time power use information. Within a decade, every building in the United States, Europe and even other countries around the world will be equipped with smart meters. In addition, each device, including thermostats, assembly lines, warehouse equipment, televisions, washing machines and computers, will be equipped with sensors linked to smart meters and Internet of things platforms.
In 2007, there were 10 million sensors connecting various human inventions to the Internet of things, but by 2013, the number had surged to more than 3.5 billion. What's more amazing is that it is estimated that there will be 100 trillion sensors connected to the Internet of things by 2030.
Other sensing devices, such as air sensing technology, software logs, wireless RFID readers and wireless sensor networks, will help collect massive data on various topics, including power price adjustment on the power grid, logistics and traffic conditions in the supply chain, production flow of assembly line, logistics and front-end office services, And real-time tracking of consumer activities.
This set of intelligent infrastructure will further provide continuous massive data, so that each enterprise connected to this network can receive relevant data, and then use advanced analysis methods to process these massive data, so as to create predictive algorithms and automatic systems to improve its thermal efficiency and significantly improve productivity, And reduce the marginal cost in the value chain to close to zero.
Cisco's system predicts that by 2022, the cost savings and revenue of the Internet of things will be as high as $14.4 trillion. The research conclusion published by Ge in November 2012 also points out that the intelligent industrial network will promote the improvement of efficiency and productivity. By 2025, these progress will have an echo in almost every economic sector and have a huge impact on about half of the global economic system. In addition, by observing each industry one by one, we can better understand how much potential progress the establishment of the first intelligent infrastructure in history can promote productivity. For example, in the aviation industry alone, a 1% improvement in fuel efficiency (through massive data analysis, better planning of air routes, supervision of equipment and maintenance) is enough to save $30 billion in 15 years.
Lower sensor costs and increased network addresses have greatly increased the feasibility of the Internet of things
The term "Internet of things" is one of the founders of MIT's automatic identification center? It was created by Kevin Ashton in 1995. However, in the years when the Internet of things was just put forward, its development was not smooth and showed a gradual decline, partly because the cost of sensors and actuators built in various "things" was still relatively high. However, from 2012 to 2013, the cost of radio frequency identification (RFID) chips (used to monitor and track various things) fell by 40%. At present, the unit cost of such labels is less than ten cents.
In addition, these tags do not need a power source because they can transmit information using wireless signals that detect these labels. The price of micro electro mechanical systems (MEMS), including gyroscopes, accelerators and pressure sensors, has also decreased significantly by 80% to 90% in the past five years.
Another obstacle that delays the adoption of the Internet of things is the network protocol (IPv4), which allows only 4.3 billion unique network addresses (each device on the network must assign a network protocol address). At present, more than 2 billion people are connected to the network, so most network protocol addresses have been quickly occupied. Of course, there are few addresses that can be used to connect hundreds of millions or even trillions of things to the network.
However, the Internet Engineering Task Force has developed a new version of the network protocol IPv6, which greatly expands the available addresses to 3.4 × 1038, which is definitely enough to accommodate two trillion devices estimated to be connected to the network in the next decade.
Nick, columnist for the economist? Nick Valery made an analysis of this puzzling number to let ordinary people understand why so many addresses are needed. To reach the threshold of two trillion devices connected to the network in ten years, everyone only needs to let "a thousand of their own items talk to the network".
In developed economies, most people own between 1000 and 5000 items.
The relevant figures seem too high. However, if we look around our houses, garages, cars and offices and count all the things in them, including electric toothbrushes, books, garage openers and electronic access cards of buildings, these figures don't seem so unreasonable, because we really have a lot of devices. Many of these devices will be labeled in the next decade, using the Internet to connect our items and other items.
The new definition of freedom is integrated into the global virtual public space
For a long time, modern people believe that the right to privacy is sacred and inviolable, and is as important as the right to life, freedom and the right to pursue happiness. Therefore, people surround privacy with layers of walls; But now, the development of the Internet of things is dismantling these walls step by step. Young generations growing up in a globally connected world often can't wait to post and share every moment of their life to the world through Facebook, twitter, youtube, instagram and countless social media websites. For them, privacy is no longer so important. In their mind, self-sufficient spontaneous and exclusive life is not freedom. On the contrary, freedom is to enjoy contact with others and integrate into the global virtual public space. This young generation will be a transparent generation. It adopts the consistent working method of synergism. In fact, it is produced in a point mode through a horizontal distribution network.
When future generations live in an increasingly interconnected world (everyone and everything is built on the Internet of things), will they still care so much about privacy? This is doubtful. Nevertheless, as the transition from capitalism to the era of collaborative cooperation will be very long, the issue of privacy will still be a key question. To a large extent, it will determine the speed and way of our transition to the next historical period.
In a generation that thrives on transparency, collaboration and integration, to protect everyone's right to control and dispose of their own data, there are definitely more difficulties in practice than in theory, and no one is naive enough to believe that the conversion process will be smooth. However, the world also clearly understands that if an appropriate balance cannot be achieved between transparency and privacy, the development of the Internet of things may slow down, or even suffer irreparable harm and loss. Once so, the collaborative generation will never come.
Although "connecting everyone and everything on the global neural network" sounds a little daunting, it also makes people feel excited and liberated, because it opens up a new possibility of living together for every creature living on the earth. This new adventure story in human history has just begun, We can hardly imagine how amazing the future development will be.
At present, the business community is rapidly reorganizing its resources and is determined to obtain value with the help of this technological revolution, because the impact of this revolution may be no less than that of electricity invented at the beginning of the second industrial revolution《 The Economist magazine think tank published the world's first "quiet revolution" global business index in 2013, because this revolution is beginning to change the whole society《 The economist conducted a survey of business leaders around the world. The respondents covered several important industries, including financial services, manufacturing, medical treatment, pharmaceutical, biotechnology, it and technology, energy and natural resources, as well as construction and real estate.
The economist's survey revealed a core message: most business leaders believe that the use of the Internet of things in all links of the value chain may significantly improve production and may damage the old way of doing business. Therefore, they have to find a way to take the lead in this battlefield, Take the lead in integrating their business operations into the Internet of things platform.
However, the Internet of things is a double-sided blade. Indeed, the pressure to improve thermal efficiency and productivity to reduce marginal costs will be irresistible. Enterprises that do not try to take advantage of this production potential to obtain benefits may be far behind other competitors. However, this intellectual power (which operates through every link and node in the infrastructure of the third industrial revolution) will not only promote the rapid rise of productivity, but also lead to zero marginal cost of collecting green power and even creating and transporting various goods and services in the next 25 years. The evolution process of the Internet of things may be roughly the same as the take-off stage of the global information network since 1990. At that time, the exponential growth of the information network will greatly reduce the production and transmission costs of information. In contrast, the exponential growth of the Internet of things will also significantly reduce the production and transmission costs of various products and services.
Exponential growth curve, the number doubled surprisingly
It is undeniable that this statement sounds a little exaggerated at first, but it is not so if we further examine the meaning of the word "index". I remember when I was about thirteen, a friend asked me to make an interesting hypothetical choice. He asked me whether I would choose "take a million dollars immediately" or "take a dollar on the first day, and then receive twice the amount of the previous day every day for one month in a row". I said at first, "you must be joking... Normal people will choose to accept a million." He said, "don't worry, calculate it and then tell me the answer." So I took out a piece of paper and a pencil and began to calculate. The amount doubled every day. After 31 days, I got more than one billion dollars, that is, one million. This result shocked me very much.
Exponential growth is so "people can't judge by appearance". People who don't know will be frightened by it. According to this daily doubling process, the amount only increased to $16384 on the 15th day. Therefore, I was full of confidence at that time and decided that I was right to accept $1 million first. But the doubling process in the next six days began to be a little amazing. After six doubles, the number in one day alone exceeded one million. The next ten days broke my glasses. By the 31st day of that month, that dollar had doubled day by day, and more than one billion dollars had been accumulated. This is the first time I have seen the power of exponential growth.
It is difficult for most people to understand the meaning of exponential growth because humans are used to linear thinking. In Jordan? Gordon Moore, founder of Intel Corporation (Intel), the world's largest semiconductor chip manufacturer, put forward one
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