"With the continuous acceleration of 5g business, the United States has an increasingly strong sense of anxiety and urgency to compete for the leading position of 5g. On April 3, 2019, the defense Innovation Committee of the U.S. Department of Defense issued the report the 5g ecosystem: Risks & opportunities for DOD (hereinafter referred to as the report), which focuses on the development process of 5g, the current global competitive situation, and the impact and challenges of 5g technology on the Department of defense, This paper focuses on the development of 5g in China and its impact on national defense security in the future, and puts forward some suggestions on spectrum policy, supply chain and infrastructure security.
5g ecosystem: risks and opportunities for the U.S. Department of Defense
Issued by: National Defense innovation Commission
Release date: April 2019
5g innovation research center of China Academy of ICT
outline
"5g" refers to the upcoming fifth generation wireless network and technology, which has a great leap in data transmission speed, capacity and delay (data transmission delay) compared with the fourth generation (4G and 4G LTE) networks. A series of new technologies brought by 5g will re-establish public and personal business standards in various fields, such as driverless vehicles, intelligent cities, virtual reality and combat networks. The historical changes in the wireless era show that the pioneer countries in this field will earn billions of dollars, create a large number of jobs and take the lead in technological innovation. At the same time, the pioneer countries will also formulate standards and specifications, and other countries will have to adopt these standards and specifications. On the contrary, the backward countries in the previous wireless iterative transformation have lost the development capacity and market potential of the new generation wireless technology because they have to adopt the standards, technologies and architecture of the leading countries.
In early 2010, at & T and Verizon quickly deployed LTE in the United States using the 700 MHz spectrum won in the 2008 bid. On the basis of this deployment, the United States became the first country (after Finland) to have an LTE integrated network, and the performance of LTE network was about 10 times that of 3G network at that time. This progress in performance has promoted the rapid popularity of smart phones, which can not only transmit more content, but also faster. Apple, Google, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and many other American companies have developed new applications and services for this spectrum. With the deployment of LTE technology in other countries, the corresponding mobile phones and applications can also be promoted all over the world. This initiative helped the United States achieve global dominance in the field of wireless and Internet services and created a wireless ecosystem led by the United States, which has been used by the U.S. Department of defense and the rest of the world for nearly a decade.
Since the launch of LTE, the original wireless competition pattern has changed. The global revenue of Chinese telecom equipment giant Huawei increased from about US $28 billion in 2009 to US $107 billion in 2018, while the revenue of traditional market leaders such as Ericsson and Nokia decreased in the same period. Chinese mobile phone manufacturers such as Huawei, ZTE, Xiaomi, vivo and oppo are growing rapidly in the global market share. Although their sales in the U.S. market are still relatively small, they are still growing rapidly in terms of utilization and influence. In 2009, the top 10 Internet companies with revenue were all American companies. Today, Chinese enterprises occupy four seats in the top ten. This trend continues. If China continues to take the lead, the future network represented by 5g may further tilt to China.
The transformation from 4G to 5g will greatly affect the future of global communication networks and fundamentally change the operating environment of the U.S. Department of defense. Although the Department of defense feels the impact of 5g, its deployment is still driven by the U.S. commercial sector. This paper makes an in-depth study on 5g's business environment and DoD's operation environment in order to fully understand the attitude of stakeholders and 5g's future.
5g has the ability to enhance DoD's decision-making and strategic capabilities from network interconnection to the tactical edge of the battlefield. 5g will enhance the ability of multiple DOD systems to connect to a wider network, realize real-time sharing of information, improve communication levels across services, geography and fields, and develop general image processing technology for the battlefield to improve dynamic perception. This improved connectivity will enable a range of new technologies and tasks, from supersonic and hypersonic defense to resilient satellite networks and multi hop networks.
Spectrum will play a key role in 5g operation, development and promotion. The peak data rate is determined by the amount of spectrum available to the wireless service. In 4G, up to five 20 MHz channels can be connected together. However, in 5g, up to five 100 MHz channels can be connected, making the speed about 20 times faster than 4G and 4G LTE. Although some 5g technologies will be deployed to the currently used cellular spectrum and achieve some improvement in performance (LTE has been quite optimized), comprehensive 5g development will require more spectrum to provide further performance improvement for consumers, the Ministry of defense or other departments.
Two methods are currently used in the global field to deploy a new 5g spectrum of hundreds of megahertz. The first focuses on the electromagnetic (EM) spectrum below 6GHz ("low to medium frequency spectrum", also known as "sub-6"), mainly in the 3GHz and 4GHz bands. The second method focuses on the frequency band between 24 and 300GHZ ("high frequency spectrum" or "millimeter wave"), which is currently used by the United States, South Korea and Japan (although the three countries also explore sub-6 frequency band to varying degrees). U.S. operators mainly focus on 5g millimeter wave deployment, because most of the 5g 3GHz and 4GHz spectrum used in other parts of the world is the unique federal frequency band of the United States, especially the frequency band widely used by the Ministry of defense.
Spectrum allocation is the core of 5g competition. For optional spectrum bands, whether sub-6 or millimeter wave, it will affect all aspects of 5g development. The spectrum band between 3GHz and 4GHz dominates the global 5g activity, because the propagation range of 3GHz and 4GHz is improved compared with the millimeter wave spectrum, and can provide the same coverage and performance with fewer base stations. Since most sub-6 frequency bands in the United States are not civil and commercial, the U.S. operators and the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), which controls the U.S. Civil spectrum, take the millimeter wave spectrum as the core of domestic 5g.
U.S. operators may continue to explore millimeter wave, but without followers, they cannot lead in 5g. The leadership of wireless networks requires the global market to recognize and follow the spectrum band specifications formulated by the leaders, because these 5g sub components and products will eventually promote cross network interoperability. Compared with U.S. operators, there is no same sub-6 band restriction problem in other parts of the world, so they will seek 5g development in this range in the future. Therefore, if the United States continues to explore the spectrum range different from that of other countries in the world, it may find that it has no global supply chain foundation.
If the future 5g ecosystem adopted by most countries in the world is based on sub-6 if spectrum, the United States will also face the challenge of millimeter wave equipment universality and sub-6 infrastructure security. With sub-6 becoming a global standard, China, which is currently in a leading position in this field, is likely to become a leader in this stage. This will bring security risks to DoD's overseas operations that rely on Chinese component networks in the supply chain. Even if the United States restricts the domestic use of the products of Chinese equipment suppliers, the market scale of the United States in the wireless field is not large enough to prevent Chinese 5g suppliers from continuing to increase their market share worldwide, resulting in great pressure on a number of suppliers who will serve the U.S. market. Due to the decline in market share and the quantity restrictions caused by competitive products, the US Department of defense and the US industrial industry are likely to be deprived of a better and cheaper global supply chain, resulting in the inability of us suppliers to invest in the research and development of future 5g products.
China plans to deploy the first widely used 5g network, and its first batch of sub-6 network services will be put into use in 2020. The first mover advantage may drive the market growth of smart phone and telecom equipment suppliers and domestic semiconductor and system suppliers. Therefore, Chinese Internet companies will develop services and applications based on 5g speed and low latency performance for their domestic market. With 5g deployed in similar frequency bands around the world, China's smart phones and Internet applications and services are likely to dominate, even if they are excluded from the U.S. market. China's development in the 5g field will reproduce the glory of the United States in the 4G field.
Chapter 1: history and overview of 5g
History of Technology
Mobile wireless technology has been developed for decades. The first generation (1g) was launched in the late 1970s and put into use in the early 1980s. Since then, a new generation of technologies and wireless standards will be launched every ten years or so, and finally reach our current state of transition between 4G and 5g capabilities. The value of each generation of technology increases exponentially, because each generation of technology promotes a series of technological progress in the commercial and military fields. The existing generation technologies are concentrated in the medium and low frequency band (less than 6GHz or less than 6), but 5g also opens the door for the use of millimeter wave spectrum.
1g (voice call): 1g mobile network was put into use in the early 1980s. It has voice communication and limited data transmission capacity (the early capacity was about 2.4kbps). 1g network uses analog signals to "transfer" cellular users between distributed base station (hosted on the base station tower) networks using standards such as amps and TACs.
2g (message passing): in the 1990s, 2G mobile network gave birth to the first batch of digital encrypted telecommunications, which improved voice quality, data security and data capacity. At the same time, it provided limited data capacity by using GSM standard circuit exchange. In the late 1990s, 2.5G and 2.75g technologies used GPRS and edge standards to improve the data transmission rate (up to 200kbps). The subsequent 2G iteration introduced data transmission through packet switching, providing an advanced stage for 3G technology.
3G (limited data: multimedia, text, Internet): in the late 1990s and early 21st century, 3G network introduced 3G network with faster data transmission speed through complete transition to data packet switching. Some voice circuit switching has been 2G standard, which makes data flow possible. The first commercial 3G service was launched in 2003, Including mobile Internet access, fixed wireless access and video call. 3G networks now use UMTS, WCDMA and other standards to increase the data speed to 1Gbps in the static state and more than 350kbps in the mobile state.
4G and LTE (real data: dynamic information access, variable equipment): 4G network service was launched in 2008, making full use of all IP networking and completely relying on packet switching. The data transmission speed is 10 times that of 3G. Due to the large bandwidth advantage and extremely fast network speed of 4G network, the quality of video data is improved. The popularity of LTE network sets communication standards for mobile devices and data transmission. LTE is evolving and is currently releasing version 12“ The speed of LTE-A can reach 300mbps.
5g: the technical capability and application scope of 5g remain to be determined. The choice of spectrum and network environment will determine the speed, capacity and delay of data transmission. For example, 5g millimeter wave can provide incredible high-speed network for fixed network under unrestricted specific conditions, but it will be difficult to maintain this speed at the cell edge. The speed of 5g sub-6 is lower than millimeter wave, but it can provide wide area coverage and will not be disturbed by environmental factors. At present, the relevant standards of 5g are being developed worldwide, and the above conditions will finally determine the "standard" of 5g.
Historical experience: the first mover advantage of generational change
In the transition of generations before 5g, it has had a great impact on the commercial value, market competition and security of the leading countries. Taking Europe led by Germany as an example, it gained its first competitive advantage in the 2G era. Companies such as Nokia and Ericsson could launch more advanced equipment earlier, and began to transform to 3G from 2000 to 2010, while the United States was still implementing 2G at that time. During this period, the European wireless technology industry flourished, while American companies were trying to keep up with the pace of development. During the 3G transformation, Europe lost this advantage because the regulatory authorities at that time required the auction of 3G spectrum resources rather than the re planning and adjustment of the existing 2G spectrum, thus delaying the opportunity. Japan is in a leading position in 3G. Although the United States finally caught up with Japan, it took several years. As Japan accelerates the promotion of 3G, American enterprises have paid a huge price. In this transformation process, the United States lost thousands of jobs and considerable income. During this period, many wireless technology companies closed down or were acquired into foreign companies.
The United States has learned lessons from the development of 4G and 4G LTE. Although the implementation progress of 3G was very slow, in the following years, the United States increased 3G investment and construction, and finally took the lead when 4G came. In addition, FFC also opened the license of more frequency bands and formulated relevant regulations to promote the rapid expansion of 4G network. At first, Japan followed closely, but the relevant industries in Japan failed to quickly develop and form a mature 4G ecosystem. Therefore, the United States took the lead in the 4G smart device market and finally replaced Japan's operating system in the world.
In early 2010, at & T and Verizon quickly deployed LTE networks across the United States using the 700MHz band won in the 2008 auction. The United States has become the first country to fully launch LTE network after Finland. The network performance of LTE is about 10 times that of the existing 3G network. This performance innovation has promoted the rapid popularization of 4G mobile phones. Mobile phones with new SOC can not only transmit more data, but also calculate much faster. American companies such as apple, Google, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and countless other companies have developed new applications and services by taking advantage of the large bandwidth and new mobile phone functions brought by LTE network. With the promotion of LTE technology in other countries, 4G mobile phones and 4G application services have also spread all over the world, promoting the United States to occupy a leading position in the field of global wireless and Internet services.
The United States has benefited greatly from this leading edge. In a report released in April 2018, reconanalytics estimated that from 2011 to 2014, the introduction of 4G contributed 70% growth to the wireless industry, which not only increased GDP, but also increased employment in the wireless industry by more than 80%. By leading the development of 4G, the United States has established a global ecosystem composed of network suppliers, equipment manufacturers and application developers. This mature ecosystem has shaped the future of 4G and provided valuable experience for other countries to build 4G.
The advantages of leaders are particularly obvious in the upgrading of wireless communication, because leaders can set infrastructure standards and specifications for future products. For example, China is laying optical cables locally and plans to participate in the "belt and road initiative"
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