COF mobile phone industry in 2019 and 2020, will face a structural change.
(1) 2019: Android LCD COF mobile phone shipments may be lower than expected about 45 percent, the fastest since June and Yi Qi State Huadian may have spare capacity.
(2) 2020: We expect an oversupply of mobile phones COF will be more pronounced, the affected vendors, including Qi State, and easy Huadian, Stemco and LG Innotek. The main changes in the industry, including: (I) Apple The new iPhone uses to replace the COP and COG COF, (II) Android camp LCD screen design paradigm shift to drilling, and (III) Huawei LCD COF mobile phone penetration rate is no longer much room for growth .
We expect 2019 Android LCD COF phone shipments may be about 9000-9500 million units significantly lower than the market consensus of 1.6 to 1.7 million. Android camp since 2H18 began to use LCD + TDDI + CO, in order to create new sales models full screen selling point, but it is based on the following three reasons Android LCD COF 2019 global mobile phone shipments may be lower than expected about 50% :( 1) Huawei mid-level model uses a lot of LCD COF design, while the US export ban greatest impact is the low-end models in the market for non-Chinese Huawei's mobile phone shipments, (2) because of the macroeconomic impact of Sino-US conflict, so the overall 2H19 handset demand may slightly lower than expected, and (3) due to the need to design a high customization capability and cost components, so the Android brand outside of Huawei adopts LCD COF progress than expected.
Phone COF expected demand to fall further in 2020. (1) 2H19 we expect the new iPhone all use of COF (2H18 with the new iPhone the same). But in 2020 the new iPhone will be COP and COG-based, it is expected that in 2020 South Korean handset makers COF (including Stemco and LG Innotek) production capacity release significantly accelerate the mobile phone industry COF price competition, (2) according to our latest survey, the future the new design of the mainstream LCD 1 will be perforated screen Android, rather than the full screen COF, (3) we believe that even if the United States did not encounter ban Huawei, 2020 COF LCD penetration is limited room for growth.
We think negatively affected COF suppliers include: Qi State, and easy Huadian, Stemco and LG Innotek.
(1) Qi State Huawei after TDDI BEOL (60%) and COF (10%) supplier, is also iPhoneXR TDDI posterior segment (100%) and COF suppliers (100%), face potential challenges include :( I) 2H19 Android TDDI COF phone shipments lower than expected, (II) DDI overall decline in the unit price, and (III) 2020 Nian lost with the new iPhone TDDI COF orders.
(2) Easy Huadian Huawei COF suppliers (90%), potential challenges include: (I) 2H19 COF phone shipments lower than expected, (II) 2020 COF declining demand in the mobile phone, and (III) 2020 COF phone facing price competition.
(3) Stemco with LG Innotek for the OLED iPhone COF supplier (accounting for 60% and 40% respectively), potential challenges include: (I) 2H19 iPhone COF prices fell, (II) 2020 Nian lose the new iPhone COF Orders , and (III) COF phone facing price competition in 2020.
Investment advice: COF mobile phone industry in 2019 and 2020, will face structural changes, we believe negatively affected COF suppliers include: Qi State, and easy Huadian, Stemco and LG Innotek.
Editor: Tianfeng international public number, Read more
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