"The statistics released by IDC and Gartner this year showed that the PC market has emerged for the first time in six years. This is a major event for the PC industry. Because the second quarter can grow, then the third quarter of the year, the fourth quarter is peak season, further The growth did not run. Unfortunately, the manufacturer of the PC industry is so happy. During this time, Intel suddenly passed out of 14nm production capacity, the most exuberant news is that the production capacity gap is as high as 40%, the problem of supplying is in the first half of next year.
Intel's 10nm crafts have been post-extension is no new, how can I suddenly 14nm capacity is not enough? From the end of 2015, the 14nm of Intel was measured for three years. After so long, I haven't had enough production capacity? This news didn't have much player who would like to believe, but the fact is like this, and consumers have now felt the influence of lack of production capacity of 14nm, and the price of the eight generations of Core processors have increased the price, and the box and dispenses are almost a day. . The nine-generation Core has released three, Core i9-9900K until now it is now available.
These are all incadvenation of Intel 14nm capacity, which can be said to be the biggest thing in the PC industry in 2018, deeply affected consumers and even the entire PC industry, and the shipments of the laptop manufacturers will also decline. The DIY player's installed budget will also be pressed (selected AMD).
Intel Global Capacity Distribution and 14NM Wafer Factory:
Unlike AMD, Qualcomm and other wafer semiconductor companies, Intel's operation mode is the vertical integration model of IDM, which is designed, own, and test itself. Processor, semiconductor chip production is the core competitiveness of Intel processors, so Intel has been the most advanced semiconductor company on Earth's process for thirties.
As a global company, Intel has established a large and small factory in all parts of the world in the United States. The main distribution and process technology are as follows:
· Oregon, Oregon, 22NM, 14NM and 10NM three wafers;
· Arizona, Arizona, 14nm and 22NM two wafers;
· New Mexico, USA, 32nm and 45 nm two wafers;
· Ireland, there is 14nm process wafer factory;
· Israel Buffalo, 22NM process wafer factory;
· There are Dalian, Chengdu, two wafers in China. It is originally a test factory, but Dalian's FAB 68 factory has been changed to 3D NAND Wafer Factory, at the end of September;
· Vietnam and Malaysia have a packaging plant.
In terms of production capacity, Intel has three 14nm wafer plants, which is very high in global semiconductor companies. Anyway, production capacity has never been rumored in the first half of this year. It is not enough production capacity. It is obviously some things happening in a month.
Intel's explanation of 14nm capacity is insufficient, can you believe?
How did the 14nm process of production have suddenly produced insufficient production capacity? For this problem, there are many rumors of the outside world, but let's take a look at Intel official:
Since this year, the continuous improvement of customer demand has promoted the growth of Intel's business lines, so that our 2018 revenue is expected to increase $ 4.5 billion on the basis of expectations in January. Our supplies will meet our disclosed annual revenue, we are working closely with customers and factory to manage various new demand. - Intel spokesman
According to Intel's statement, the capacity crisis is due to high demand, leading to Intel this year's revenue expect to increase $ 4.5 billion than the beginning of the year. Considering that Intel's revenue is around $ 62.8 billion last year, there is a lot of $ 45 billion, it seems that the demand is indeed high, so all the product demand has grown?
Intel's processor mainly involves two departments of CCG clients and DCG data centers, which can be simply understood as consumption CPUs, servers CPUs. In combination with Intel Q2 quarterly financial data to see the specific performance of these two parts:
At the CCG department, the Q2 quarterly revenue was $ 8.7 billion, an increase of 6% year-on-year, of which the laptop market increased by 6%, and the desktop market has also increased by 6%, but the revenue growth is mainly achieved by ASP average price, with desktop processing The ASP price increased by 13%, and the notebook processor ASP increased by 2%. If you want to spend sales, the shipments in the Q2 quarter PC market are actually a decline in 1%.
The PC market shipments have fallen by 1%, which is clear that this pot is not caused by the PC market, and the PC player does not carry this pot.
In the DCG data center department, the Q2 quarterly revenue is $ 5.5 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 27%, cloud data, and enterprise markets have substantially increased, and the average price is increased by 11%, and sales increase by 14%.
If you do this, Intel's demand growth has a certain reason. The demand in the data center market has increased significantly, but this increase is not possible to lead to 14nm production capacity so large, which will have other reasons. The number of several reasons are most likely.
One of Intel 14nm production capacity: multi-core chip increases the decline in total production
Everyone knows that the processor is cut from a whole wafer. Intel is now using a 12-inch wafer. The total capacity is not changed. Now the 14nm supply is not enough means that the chip produced by each wafer is less. It is very likely that this is related to the Intel's market changes. That is under the pressure of AMD, Intel also followed into multi-core chip production, the core increase means that the core area has also become big, each crystal The total number of CPUs produced in the circle is less.
In 2017, AMD returned to the high-performance processor market with Ruilong and EPYC processors. The mainstream AM4 desktop market is 8 core 16-thread processor. The top TR4 platform is 16 core to 32 core, the server-level EPYC is 32 core 64 thread processor. Although AMD's Ruilong processor monoconuclear performance is not as good as Core, it will not hold more, so AMD processor has strong multi-core performance and cost performance.
AMD's offensive at the multi-core makes Intel have to follow up. We can see Intel 2017 launched 18 core 36 threads of Core i9 processor. The Core i7-8700K of the mainstream market is also upgraded to 6 core 12 threads, and then The Core I5, I3 and Pentiums are also upgraded to 6 cores, 4 cores, 2 core 4 threads, etc., this year continues to increase the 8-core 16-thread (i9-9900K) and 8 core 8 threads (i7-9700K).
In addition to the increase in the core of the consumer market processor, the server processor is constantly increasing the number of cores. The Xeon series increases from previous up to 22 cores to 28 cores. Although this year's Cascade Lake series processor does not continue to increase the number of cores, Intel is also At the pressure of AMD, it has begun to quietly price, so that the attraction of the 20+ core Xeon processor increases, and sales will also increase.
Although Intel's progress on multi-core processors helps to popularize 6 cores, 8-core processors, the increase in core is meant to increase the core area (in the case of 14nm process unchanged), it means that in a fixed wafer product The number of CPUs produced will become less, and the more difficulty the number of cores is also higher, and the yield may also be affected. 90% of the 12-inch wafers are qualified, and now 6-8 core increases. The yield may be reduced by 5% (the specific yield is unknown, the number is just a bit), which will also cause the number of CPUs to decrease.
Intel 14nm production capacity is not enough reason 2: 300 series chipset upgrade 14nm process
In addition to the increase in capacity output due to the increase in multi-core processor, Intel has a 16nm capacity crisis, which is Intel decided that the 300 series chipset is fully turned to 14nm process. This adjustment makes the chipset also grabbing the processor. , Exacerbated the outbreak of the capacity crisis.
Intel's 300-Series chipset cannonlake PCH, including Z390, H370, Q370, B360, and H370, Q370, B360, and H310, and the current flagship chipset Z370 is not within the real 300-series chipset, because it is actually 22nm process Z270 Vest.
Although the production chipset using the 14nm process is helpful to improve the chipset power consumption, the income is not obvious, because the Z370 chipset TDP power consumption of the 22nm process is 6W, the function of the chipset is a single, which is not the most advanced The process, but the chipset and the CPU are one-on-one. The global PC shipments exceed more than 300 million, Intel's share is more than 80%, and the latest platform is only 1/4, that is 14nm The chipset is also a massive test for 14 nm production capacity.
Because of this, after 14 nm production capacity, Intel was exposed to the 14nm production plan of the chipset. The entry-level H310 chipset was changed back to 22nm process production, and the online also exposed H310C chipset, core area ratio H310 is slightly higher.
In addition to the H310 chipset, there are recent B360 chip groups to reduce production of 30%, this is also part of Intel improving 14nm capacity, but it is possible to lead to shortage price increases in the Q4 quarter.
Intel 14nm production capacity is three reasons: full guarantee of large customers apple
If the previous two factors are the internal causes of indilla 14nm production capacity, then this one is an external cause, and it is possible to become the most critical factor, that is, the baseband order of Apple iPhone XS / XS Max / XR mobile phone is all provided by Intel this year. It is the XMM7560 baseband of the 14nm process.
Intel squeezed to enter the mobile market in the past few years, and finally, he was returned to 4 billion US dollars, but this year Intel came to the treasure - because Apple and Qualcomm did not have final results, in order to apply pressure to Qualcomm This year's iPhone's baseband processor order is all gave Intel, Qualcomm has been out, so Apple has a high supply chain of baseband chips, and Intel also has such a large order, naturally safeguard Apple supplies.
Even if you don't consider the partial baseband on the iPhone 8/8 PLSU / X, it is only 14nm busy to this year's iPhone XS / XS Max / XR baseband. According to the analyst of Sky Wind Securities, Guo Mingqi, Apple's new generation of iPhone will reach 8,000-90 million this year, then at least 80 million baseband chips, and the stock is higher than the shipments, thereby It can be seen that the baseband chip can occupy a large part of Intel 14nm capacity. Most of the $ 4.5 billion revenue increased this year may be the contribution of the baseband chip.
Intel 14nm capacity crisis consequences: bulk boxed processor comprehensive price increase
For consumers, Intel's 14nm production capacity is not important because we have undertaken the consequences of this crisis. These two months come to eight-generation Core processor regardless of the box or bulk, in all over-line, especially the previous cost-effective, the cost-effective, Core i5-8400, Core i3-8100, Pentium G4560 and other processor advantages are no longer Netizens can only ridicule eight-generation processors have also become a wealth management product this year.
Core i7-8700k's current box price has risen to 3099 yuan, the previous price is only 2799 yuan, and it can do about 2,000 yuan when the dispersion is the lowest, and now it is big to rise.
The price of Core i5-8400 dispense is less than 1,000 yuan. Nowadays, the price is generally 1400 yuan, and the box is more than 1999 yuan. This increase has made people can't do it.
Not just the price increase of the eight generations, the nine-generation Core processor pricing has also been significantly affected, 8 core 16 threads Core i9-9900K domestic price 4999 yuan, this price has broken through the mainstream Core processing The limit of the device, and released now, there is no sale, the price is expensive, the supply, the players who have a heart to buy nine-generation Core processors are more helpless.
AMD 趁 Intel disease must be hit? Ideal is very beautiful
This year's PC market is difficult to usher in the first growth in 6 years, but the Intel 14nm capacity crisis disrupted this rhythm. The PC players who have suffered from the processor, the PC players affected by the off-stock, some people may think that Intel's production capacity is not enough to buy AMD, and more people are so optimistic about the AMD year, the most exuberant statement is the market share of AMD this year. Reaching 30% is three times the existing level.
This goal is very powerful, with Intel encounters an energy-capacity crisis, AMD theory launches to expand its market share, but how many markets can be taken from Intel's hand, the first thing to solve is AMD own capacity problem.
We all know that the Ruilong processor is the 14nm LPP process production of the Globalfoundries of the foundry. The Ruilong Second Generation released in April this year is a modified 12nm LPP process. Production base is GlobalFoundries (hereinafter referred to as GF Company) in the United States The FAB 8 wafer factory in Malta, New York, and is the only wafer factory.
Compared with Intel three 14nm wafer plants, GF's 14 / 12nm wafer factory has only one, and the mass production time is only one year, and the GF has not yamful history, FAB 8 is now Production capacity has also reached the limit, and the financial situation of GF in recent years is still not optimistic. If you have no money investment, the AMD has a lot of money from Intel, and the GF cannot quickly increase the Ruilong processing. The capacity of the unit.
The market research firm announced, the AMD company announced in the Q2 quarter, the number of desktop CPU markets in the Q2 quarter, 2016, only 9.1% in 2016, until the 2017 Q1 quarter launched the Ruilong processor after the Ruilong processor. Increased, but last year is a 12% level. This year's Q1 has reached 12.2%, Q2 quarter increases to 12.3%.
According to this speed, AMD has an optimistic estimate of the desktop market share of this year. The 30% share of rumors is basically impossible, unless the shipments of Q4 can grow 250%, or Intel shipments. Sirred 65%, but since 2000, the history has been recorded, Intel has fallen up to 24% shipments, and the best level in AMD growth is only 57%.
You know, this is also the share of the desktop CPU market, on the notebook and server market, the share of AMD is lower, and it will not change much this year.
In addition to production capacity, the AMD is also facing the problem of the processor itself. The Ruilong 7 2700X in the second generation of sharp dragon passes the frequency improvement, and the power consumption has shrunk the gap between the Intel's eight-generation Core processor, but This year, Intel launched the nine-generation Core processor, increasing 8 cores16 thread processor, while single-core frequency increases to 5GHz, other two processors have also improved the core number and single core frequency, and the performance of the AMD is once again opened again.
AMD wants to reverse the gap between the processor performance, only wait for ZEN 2 architecture and 7nm process, currently 7nm CPU has been sampled, the first EPYC server product, the consumer level should be subsequent, the release time has not been announced, but the previous news said that In the second half of 2019, with the advantages of the process and architecture, AMD is likely to close the gap between the Intel Core processor.
Summarize:
Intel's 14nm capacity crisis broke out without warning. They confirmed that there is a nervous supply, but so far, I have not explained the specific reasons for the insufficient production capacity, and the so-called demand has risen to supply insufficient supply. It is too blur. .
Inadequacies in Intel have seriously affected the price and supply of the processor on the market. In the two months, everyone felt the crazy price increase of the eight-generation Core processor, the price of spacers and boxes had been out of control, and the disappears of the people were in the Core i5 / The i3 processor is in the past, and the player can only be responsible for this price.
Original address: https://www.eeboard.com/news/14nm-amd/
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