"The statistics released by IDC and Gartner in the middle of this year show that the PC market has shown positive growth for the first time in six years, which is a major event for the PC industry, because it can grow in the second quarter, so the third quarter and the fourth quarter of the end of the year are the peak season, and there is no further growth. Unfortunately, it's too early for manufacturers in the PC industry to be happy. During this period, Intel suddenly came out with the problem of insufficient 14nm capacity. The most exaggerated news is that the capacity gap is as high as 40%, and the problem of insufficient supply will continue until the first half of next year.
The continuous delay of Intel's 10nm process is not news. Why is the 14nm capacity suddenly insufficient? Since the end of 2015, Intel's 14nm has been mass produced for three years. After such a long time, is it said that the production capacity is insufficient? At first, few players were willing to believe this news, but the fact is that this is the case, and consumers have now felt the impact of insufficient 14nm production capacity. The price of the eighth generation core processor has increased in a large area, and the price of boxed and loose chips has increased almost every day not long ago. The ninth generation core released three models, and the core i9-9900k has not been listed until now.
These are the disasters caused by Intel's lack of 14nm production capacity. This can be said to be the biggest thing in the PC industry in 2018, which has a profound impact on consumers and even the whole PC industry. As a result, the shipments of notebook manufacturers will decline, and the installation budget of DIY players will be squeezed (choose AMD).
Intel's global capacity distribution and 14nm Fabs:
Unlike AMD, Qualcomm and other fabless semiconductor companies, Intel's operation mode is IDM vertical integration mode, that is, it designs, produces and tests itself. Processor, semiconductor chip production is the core competitiveness of Intel processor, so Intel has been the most advanced semiconductor company on the earth for 30 years.
As a global company, Intel has not only semiconductor factories in the United States, but also large and small factories around the world. The main distribution and process technology are as follows:
·Oregon, USA, has three wafer factories of 22nm, 14nm and 10nm;
·Arizona, USA, has two wafer factories of 14nm and 22nm;
·New Mexico, USA, has two wafer factories of 32nm and 45nm;
·Ireland, with 14nm process wafer factory;
·Buffalo, Israel, has a 22nm process wafer factory;
·There are two wafer factories in Dalian and Chengdu in China. They were originally sealed and tested factories, but Fab 68 factory in Dalian has been changed into 3D NAND wafer factory before and put into operation at the end of September;
·Vietnam and Malaysia each have a packaging plant.
In terms of production capacity, Intel now has three 14nm wafer factories, which is extremely high among semiconductor companies around the world. Anyway, there has been no rumor of insufficient production capacity in the first half of this year. Insufficient production capacity is only available in recent months. Obviously, something has happened.
Can you believe Intel's official explanation for the lack of 14nm capacity?
Why did the 14nm process, which has been produced for many years, suddenly have the problem of insufficient production capacity? There are many rumors about this issue, but let's take a look at what Intel officials say:
Since the beginning of this year, the continuous improvement of customer demand has promoted the growth of Intel's business lines, and our revenue outlook for 2018 has increased by $4.5 billion on the basis of the expectation in January. Our supply volume will meet our disclosed annual revenue outlook. We are working closely with customers and factories to manage various new demands—— Intel spokesman
According to Intel, the capacity crisis is due to the high demand, resulting in an increase of $4.5 billion in Intel's revenue forecast this year compared with that at the beginning of the year. Considering that Intel's revenue was about $62.8 billion last year, it's a lot to increase by $4.5 billion. It seems that the demand is indeed rising, so what are the product demand increases?
Intel's processor mainly involves CCG client and DCG data center, which can be simply understood as consumption CPU and server CPU. Combined with Intel Q2 financial report data, the specific performance of these two parts of business is as follows:
In the CCG department, the revenue in Q2 was US $8.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%, of which the revenue in the notebook market increased by 6% and the desktop market also increased by 6%, but the revenue growth was mainly realized by the average price of ASP, of which the price of desktop processor ASP increased by 13% and that of notebook processor ASP increased by 2%. In terms of sales volume, the shipment of PC market in Q2 actually fell by 1%.
PC market shipments fell by 1%. Obviously, the lack of capacity is not caused by the PC market. PC players do not carry this pot.
In the DCG Data Center Department, the revenue in Q2 was US $5.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27%. The cloud data and enterprise markets increased significantly, the average price increased by 11%, and the sales volume increased by 14%.
In this way, Intel's demand growth is reasonable. The demand in the data center market is increasing significantly, but this growth is unlikely to lead to such a large shortage of 14nm capacity. There are other reasons. The following reasons are most likely.
One of the reasons for Intel's lack of 14nm capacity: the increase of multi-core chips leads to the decline of total production
As we all know, processors are cut from a whole wafer. Intel now uses 12 inch wafers, and the total production capacity has not changed. Now the shortage of 14nm supply means that there are fewer chips produced by each wafer, which is probably related to Intel's market changes in recent years, that is, under the pressure of AMD's multi-core processors, Intel has also followed up the production of multi-core chips. The increase of core means that the core area has become larger, and the total number of CPUs produced by each wafer is less.
In 2017, amd returned to the high-performance processor market with Ruilong and epyc processors. The mainstream AM4 desktop market is 8-core 16 thread processors, the top TR4 platform is 16 core to 32 core, and the server level epyc is 32 core 64 thread processors. Although the single core performance of AMD's Raptor processor is not as good as core, it can't support many cores. Therefore, AMD processor has strong multi-core performance and high cost performance.
AMD's offensive on multi-core has forced Intel to follow up. We can see that Intel launched 18 core and 36 thread core i9 processor in 2017, the core i7-8700k in the mainstream market has also been upgraded to 6 core and 12 threads, and the core i5, I3 and Pentium have also been upgraded to 6 core, 4 core, 2 core and 4 threads, This year, it continued to upgrade to 8-core 16 threads (i9-9900k) and 8-core 8 threads (i7-9700k).
In addition to the increase in processor cores in the consumer market, server processors are also increasing the number of cores. Xeon series has increased from the previous maximum of 22 cores to 28 cores. Although cascade Lake series processors this year have not continued to increase the number of cores, Intel has also begun to quietly reduce prices under the pressure of AMD, making Xeon processors with 20 + cores more attractive and sales will increase.
Although Intel's progress in multi-core processors helps popularize 6-core and 8-core processors, the increase in the number of cores means an increase in the core area (under the condition that the 14nm process remains unchanged). Under the fixed wafer capacity, it means that the number of CPUs produced will become less, and the more the number of cores, the higher the difficulty of production, and the yield may be affected, Originally, 90% of the chips on 12 inch wafers were qualified. Now, with the increase of 6-8 cores, the yield may be reduced by 5% (the specific yield is unknown, the number is just an analogy), which will also reduce the number of CPUs.
The second reason for Intel's lack of 14nm capacity: upgrading 14nm process for 300 series chipsets
In addition to the reduction of capacity output caused by the increase of multi-core processors, Intel also made a move that led to the 14nm capacity crisis, that is, Intel decided to turn the 300 series chipsets to the 14nm process. This adjustment made the chipsets compete with the processors for capacity, which exacerbated the outbreak of the capacity crisis.
Intel's 300 series chipset code canonlake PCH includes the just released Z390, h370, q370, b360 and h310. The current flagship chipset z370 is not included in the true 300 series chipset, because it is actually a vest of 22nm process z270.
Although using 14nm process to produce chipsets helps to improve chipset power consumption, the benefit is not obvious, because the TDP power consumption of z370 chipset with 22nm process is only 6W. The function of chipset is relatively single, and the most advanced process is not used at all. However, chipset and CPU are one-to-one. The global PC shipment exceeds 300 million every year, and Intel's share is more than 80%, Even if the latest platforms account for only 1 / 4 of the number, the required 14nm chipsets are also massive, which is a serious test of 14nm capacity.
Because of this, after the problem of 14nm capacity came out, intel was exposed to adjust the 14nm production plan of the chipset, the entry-level h310 chipset was changed back to the 22nm process, and the improved h310c chipset was also exposed online, with a slightly higher core area than h310.
In addition to the h310 chipset, there are rumors of a 30% reduction in the production of b360 chipset recently, which is also part of Intel's improvement of 14nm production capacity, but it may lead to the shortage and price increase of b360 motherboard in Q4.
The third reason for Intel's lack of 14nm production capacity: fully guarantee the key customer Apple baseband
If the first two factors are the internal cause of Intel's lack of 14nm capacity, this one is the external cause, and it may become the most critical factor, that is, Apple's iPhone The baseband orders of XS / XS max / XR mobile phones are all provided by Intel this year, mainly the xmm7560 baseband with 14nm process.
Intel broke its head to enter the mobile market a few years ago and finally failed, posting more than $7 billion. However, Intel found a treasure this year - because the patent war between apple and Qualcomm has not yet been finalized, in order to put pressure on Qualcomm, this year's iPhone baseband processor orders were all given to Intel, and Qualcomm has been out, Therefore, Apple has high requirements for the supply chain of baseband chips, and Intel is also happy to win such a large order, so it naturally makes every effort to ensure Apple's supply.
Even without considering some baseband on the iPhone 8 / 8 plsu / x, this year's iPhone XS / XS max / XR baseband alone is enough to be 14nm busy. According to the prediction of Guo Mingxuan, an analyst at Tianfeng securities, the shipment of Apple's new generation iPhone this year will reach 80-90 million, which requires at least 80 million baseband chips, and the stock volume is higher than the shipment volume. Therefore, baseband chips can occupy a large part of Intel's 14nm energy production, Most of the $4.5 billion increase in revenue this year may be the contribution of baseband chips.
Consequences of Intel's 14nm capacity crisis: overall price rise of bulk boxed processors
For consumers, it doesn't matter why Intel's 14nm capacity is insufficient, because now we have borne the consequences of this crisis. Over the past two months, the price of the eighth generation core processors, whether boxed or in bulk, has been rising or even out of stock. In particular, the advantages of the previous cost-effective bulk core i5-8400, core i3-8100, Pentium g4560 and other processors are no longer available. Netizens can only tease that the eighth generation processor has become a wealth management product this year.
The current boxed price of core i7-8700k has risen to 3099 yuan, but the previous price was only 2799 yuan, and the lowest bulk film can be about 2000 yuan. Now it has risen sharply.
The price of core i5-8400 was once less than 1000 yuan, but now the price is generally 1400 yuan, and the box is 1999 yuan. Such an increase has been beyond people's control.
Not only has the price of the eighth generation core processor increased, but the pricing of the ninth generation core processor just released has also been significantly affected by the production capacity. The domestic price of the 8-core 16 thread core i9-9900k is 4999 yuan, which has exceeded the limit of the mainstream core processors of previous dynasties. Moreover, it has not been sold since its release. The price is expensive and the supply is still small, Players who want to buy the ninth generation core processor are also a little more helpless.
Amd killed Intel while he was ill? The ideal is beautiful
This year's PC market finally ushered in its first growth in six years, but Intel's 14nm capacity crisis disrupted this rhythm. PC players affected by processor price increase and shortage are not angry. Some people may think that Intel has insufficient production capacity and buy AMD. Therefore, some people are optimistic about the significant growth of AMD's share in the whole year. The most exaggerated statement is that AMD's market share this year can reach 30%, three times the current level.
This goal is very good and powerful. Taking advantage of Intel's capacity crisis, AMD's theory listing has the opportunity to expand its market share, but how much market it can steal from Intel is a problem. The first thing to solve is AMD's own capacity.
We all know that the Ruilong processor is produced by the 14nm LPP process of the foundry Globalfoundries. The Ruilong II released in April this year is produced by the improved 12NM LPP process. The production base is the Fab 8 wafer factory of Globalfoundries (hereinafter referred to as GF company) in Malta, New York, and it is the only wafer factory.
Compared with Intel's three 14nm fabs, GF has only one 14 / 12NM fab, and the mass production time is only one year. Considering gf's disgraceful history in yield and other issues in the past, Fab 8's current production capacity has reached the limit, while gf's financial situation in recent years is still unhappy and has no money to invest in improving production capacity. Therefore, even if amd takes this opportunity to grab share from Intel, The reality is also very helpless. GF can't quickly increase the production capacity of Ruilong processor.
Mercury research, a market research company, recently announced the change of AMD's desktop CPU market share from 2016 to Q2 of 2018. AMD's share was only 9.1% in Q3 of 2016, and it did not increase significantly until the launch of Ruilong processor in Q1 of 2017. It was 12% at the end of the past year. It reached 12.2% in Q1 and 12.3% in Q2 of this year.
According to this speed, AMD's desktop market share for the whole year is optimistic, that is, up to 15%, and the rumored 30% share is basically impossible, unless the shipment volume in Q4 can increase by 250%, or Intel's shipment volume plummeted by 65%. However, from the best record in history since 2000, Intel's shipment volume has fallen by 24% at most, and AMD's best growth level is only 57%.
You know, this is still the share in the desktop CPU market. In terms of notebook and server market, AMD's share is lower, and it won't change much this year.
In addition to the inability to rapidly increase the production capacity, AMD is also facing the problem of the competitiveness of the processor itself. The second-generation Ruilong 7 2700x has narrowed the gap with Intel's eighth generation core processor through frequency improvement and power consumption optimization. However, Intel launched the ninth generation core processor this year, with an increase of 8 cores
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