"Samsung Li Zairun recently said that Samsung will become the world's number one chip supplier in 2030. Samsung's goal has been very clear. Now it is the first in the global memory industry, and 85% of its revenue comes from memory. Therefore, in the future, it may take measures, one is to continue to expand the market share of memory, the other is to adopt merger approaches, including expanding the market share of logic chips and OEM.
According to IC insights' prediction, due to the cooling of the market of memory chips (including DRAM and NAND), Samsung's annual revenue of semiconductor products will plummet by 20% year-on-year, from US $78.5 billion in 2018 to US $63.1 billion this year. Although Intel's sales are flat this year, it will eventually turn out that Samsung will fall to second again, bringing Intel back to first.
However, Samsung Li Zairun recently said that Samsung will become the world's number one chip supplier in 2030.
Samsung's goal has been very clear. Now it is the first in the global memory industry, and 85% of its revenue comes from memory. Therefore, in the future, it may take measures, one is to continue to expand the market share of memory, the other is to adopt merger approaches, including expanding the market share of logic chips and OEM.
Memory remains the main growth force
Over the past two decades, the access bandwidth of DRAM based computer memory has increased by 20 times and the capacity has increased by 128 times, but the delay performance has only increased by 1.3 times.
For DRAM, a mature technology that many people dream of looking for alternatives, its speed is not as fast as that of the processor, which limits its application. Although there are many technologies that are expected to replace DRAM at present or in the future, experts seem to believe that these technologies can not replace the cost-effective advantages of DRAM at this stage.
According to dramexchange and Jibang consulting, 5g, data center and edge computing will become the main driving forces for the increase of server DRAM demand, and it is expected to surpass the mainstream mobile DRAM applications after 2021.
The DRAM memory capacity of each smartphone will increase by more than three times, which is expected to reach about 6GB by 2022, while the NAND flash memory capacity of each smartphone will increase by more than five times, which is expected to reach more than 150gb by 2022. For servers, it is expected that the DRAM memory capacity will reach more than 0.5tb by 2022, and the NAND memory capacity of SSD in the enterprise market will reach more than 5TB. The growth drivers of these markets come from deep learning, data centers, networks, AR / VR and autonomous driving.
Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO of micron, believed in May 2018 that there has been a paradigm transformation in the memory market. The mobile era centered on smart phones has gradually shifted into the data economy era based on artificial intelligence (AI).
According to the latest forecast of WSTS, the global memory will be 123.9b in 2017, an increase of 61.5%, 161.7b in 2018, an increase of 30.5%, and 169.1b in 2019, an increase of 4.6%.
Micron predicts that the global memory market in the data center will increase from 29.0b in 2017 to 62.0b in 2021; In automotive electronics, it increased from 2.5B in 2017 to 5.9b in 2021; In mobile devices, it increased from 45.0b in 2017 to 54.0b in 2021, and in the Internet of things, it increased from 9.0b in 2017 to 16.0b in 2021.
Annexing NXP is the best policy
NXP is a very excellent European semiconductor company. Its predecessor is Philips semiconductor department. On March 2, 2015, NXP semiconductors announced that it would acquire Freescale Semiconductor with about US $11.8 billion in cash and stock. Freescale, formerly Motorola's semiconductor division, was spun off from Motorola in 2004 and privatized at a total price of $17.6 billion in 2006.
The change of NXP is impressive. It is aggressive and constantly divested or adjusted, so its financial situation has been very good. So far, it has no intention to sell itself.
Among the top 20 global semiconductor enterprises in 2016, Qualcomm ranked fourth and NXP ranked tenth. Qualcomm is currently the world's largest smartphone chip manufacturer, while enzhipu is the world's largest vehicle chip manufacturer.
If Qualcomm successfully acquires NXP semiconductor, it will become the largest acquisition in semiconductor history. After the merger, the two companies will occupy an industry leading position in the fields of mobile, automobile, Internet of things, security, RF and network.
After the transaction lasted more than a year, the European Commission approved Qualcomm's $38 billion acquisition of NXP semiconductors after promising a number of terms. However, among the nine countries and regions in the world that need antitrust approval, China finally used the veto. It can be seen that this merger has a significant impact on the development of China's semiconductor industry.
According to the financial report of NXP, the company's revenue in 2018 reached US $9.41 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2%. Among them, the business of automobile and safety connection equipment increased by more than 5%, and the business of safety identification solutions increased by 6%. According to Richard clemmer, CEO of NXP, "NXP will continue to fully promote the company's long-term development strategy with strong innovative solutions and excellent ability to attract customers." It is precisely because of such a good performance that it attracted Qualcomm's pursuit in the early two years.
Merge GF to expand OEM market
Since amd split and established GF, a pure OEM factory in 2009, it has been in a very difficult situation due to the pressure of TSMC and Samsung. Among them, the advanced process is inferior to them, and the characteristic process FD SOI technology market is still being cultivated. Therefore, the financial situation has not been very good, and there seems to be no dawn in the short term. Therefore, the industry has rumored that GF is for sale.
Before the lunar new year, world advanced announced that it would spend US $236 million (equivalent to NT $7.327 billion) to acquire Fab 3E, an 8-inch wafer factory of global foundries and tampine in Singapore, including plant, facility, machinery and equipment, micro electro mechanical system (MEMS) IP and business.
Samsung Electronics made a high-profile announcement in 2017 that it would scale up the OEM field, and announced that it would achieve the grand goal of achieving 25% of the modern industry market in the next five years. According to the report of Tuolong Industry Research Institute and IC insights research and adjustment organization, the market share of TSMC is as high as 56% to 60%, the grid core is about 9% to 10%, liandian is 8.5% to 9%, and Samsung is 7% to 7.5%. If Samsung acquires lattice core, the market share will immediately surpass liandian and become the second largest wafer factory in the world.
From the perspective of expanding the OEM market, Samsung's merger with GF may be a reasonable option. However, whether GF can accept it in the end and whether Samsung can quickly turn losses into profits after taking over may not be very sure, so Samsung's decision may also be hesitant.
epilogue
The three pillars of the global semiconductor industry are taking shape, including Intel, Samsung and TSMC. Although each has its own strengths and is safe for the time being, it will certainly change in the future. However, it is believed that it will face more and more difficulties, such as the refusal of American regulators to acquire Qualcomm by Broadcom and the refusal of Chinese regulators to acquire NXP semiconductor by Qualcomm.
Intel may be a little slow and lack of spirit. It tries to turn over from the data center. Fortunately, its processor gross profit margin is still very high and its life is still comfortable; Samsung is determined to forge ahead and dare not lag behind. It ranks first in memory and has strong action execution. In addition, with complete supporting terminal electronic products, Samsung aims to win the first place among chip manufacturers; TSMC adheres to its OEM business and has a daunting momentum of competing for the first in advanced technology and manufacturing. Moreover, its concept of serving customers makes it almost difficult for its competitors to learn. Therefore, it is difficult to predict how the three will change in the future.
Samsung relies on its large cash flow. There are two ways to achieve its goal. One is to continue to increase the share of memory; The other is through mergers. However, merger is a commercial behavior, which breeds great risks. As for whether Samsung can achieve its ultimate goal, it depends on its determination and "nature".
Top recommendations:
Microchip AVR IOT WG ac164160 evaluation board, safely connecting millions of intelligent devices
Adeno semiconductor lt6274 / lt6275 90mhz 2200v / µ s 30V low power operational amplifier
Texas Instruments tps65218evm evaluation module is a fully assembled platform to evaluate the performance of tps65218 power management devices
Infineon coolgan ™ Gallium nitride HEMT, setting a new benchmark for power conversion
Recommended activities of the editor:
[raspberry Pie 4 guess] if the prediction is correct, you can get a new version of raspberry pie
Double reward | watch videos, learn about TOF and Infineon real3
Collect! Do you have HMI project experience? Free card plus Kindle reward
Mouser gives a good gift - everyone participating in the user has a prize, and raspberry pie 3B + is waiting for you!
We invite you to join Aiban engineers group (Group No.: 135513647)
More activities, consultation and technical exchange“
Our other product:
