◆ Semiconductor industry review
After 3Q11 inventory deformation, the 3Q11 semiconductor industry is not prosperous; 4Q11 is subject to European and American debt problems, and the people will be afraid of layoffs, so the consumption attitude is conservative, and the semiconductor plant is also started to carry out the inventory water level. Adjust the action downwards, try to minimize the finished product inventory and zero component inventory.
However, terminal technology products still have a certain need, but the semiconductor inventory water level is slightly over, so the urgent order will become the most commonly heard of 4Q11 ~ 2Q12.
◆ 2012 semiconductor industry outlook
In 2012, the development of global semiconductor industry is still facing challenges, and the main problems are still concentrated in the economic turmoil and subsequent consumer demand for financial turmoil and the mitigation crisis.
Due to the peak of European debts (Earth and Spain, the peak of the payment is from 02 ~ 04/2012, the European debt problem will still exist, so IBTSIC believes that the semiconductor factory will still maintain a lower level of attitude towards themselves. The people's consumption part exists due to expected psychology, resulting in IBTSIC, IBTSIC believes that the global semiconductor industry will continue until 2Q12, there is a chance to tell a paragraph, but if the European debt is not treated (such as: defiance Therefore, there is a turmoil that causes the financial system, which will affect the terminal consumption demand, then 2Q12 will continue to face the development of the semiconductor industry in conservative attitude.
IBTSIC believes that the problem of 2Q12 OU debt has the opportunity to report a paragraph, so the semiconductor industry is in the bottom of 2Q11, but the semiconductor factory is expected to reduce the inventive water level, such as the European debt problem, the 2Q12, the 2H12 will appear one wave Semiconductor stock back.
◆ Global semiconductor output value (month "
Global Semiconductor Sales Average 01/2011 ~ 09/2011 is 226.13 billion yuan, YOY + 2.8%, 09/2011 global semiconductor output value of 25.76 billion yuan, more growing at 08/2011, mainly because of the rise in Japan, Japan's IC Product demand growth is additionally applied to hand-held devices related IC demand growth.
2H11 Global Semiconductor Sales is still facing larger pressure, mainly due to the tightening psychology caused by European debt, in turn affects the people's consumer demand, IBTSIC believes that the global semiconductor sales will be declining in 4Q11, 1H12 Global will be shrouded in the European debt crisis The global semiconductor sales amount is also conservative; the issue of European debt, such as the slowdown, and the global semiconductor has the opportunity to enter the recovery after 2Q12.
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◆ Global semiconductor output value (year
The SIA is currently estimated that global semiconductor output is $ 308.7 billion, YOY + 3.49%. However, the global prospects of 2H11 global boom have been tired, IBTSIC is revoled in 2011 global semiconductor output to $ 303.2 billion, YOY + 1.64%.
In 2012 the global semiconductor production value still see the end result of the European debt problem solving may be, the whole 1H12 global semiconductor industry is still not optimistic, 2H12 will have the opportunity to recover, SIA forecast 2012 global semiconductor production value of US $ 317.8 billion.
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◆ Global Semiconductor Equipment Index
Since 1995, the North American Semiconductor Equipment Index has experienced seven cycles, including the leading index of North American Semiconductor Equipment Order Yoy (also a leading index of industries, IBTSIC is observed in the past semiconductor equipment cycle, when equipment Order YOY falls into - 70 ~ -80% and index falls into 0.5 ~ 0.6.
10/2011 Equipment Index is 0.74, the equipment order amount yoy-41.06%, the low-speed area of the history indicator is close, but still need to bottom in the next 1 ~ 2 season, so IBTSIC is the fastest 1Q12 or 2Q12 of the North American semiconductor equipment indicator Have the opportunity to bottom, 2Q12 has the opportunity to enter the eighth cycle. Technology area
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