Said that 2019 is 5G in the first year, it also manifested in the end of the year from the beginning of the year. What is the business scene driver 5G success? It has not been conclusively. Three articles throw me some views, today, 5G 2C business today.
2C digital success password
Telecom operators and mobile Internet companies are the winners in personal digital tide.
Call as the most basic demand for human communication, no need to education and training, so as long as the technology matures, the price is low enough, it is easy to develop, and it is easy to develop huge industrial cake.
Digital mobile communication technology represented by GSM has a series of new features such as card separation, global roaming, and independent network, which can meet the needs of people calls anytime, anywhere; while mature industrial chain and rapidly growing user size drive network Construction, operating costs, and terminal prices are rapidly reduced, so that mobile phones have entered thousands of households.
The main driving force in the 2G era is from the innovation of communication technology. Communication equipment manufacturers are based on system architectures defined by the International Standards Organization, design and manufacture products that produce industrial standards, and then sell to telecom operators to build communication networks to provide end users with mobile communication capabilities.
The industrial dividend caused by mobile voice is shared by three roles: communication equipment, telecom operators, and terminal manufacturers.
Telecom operators are in the best state in the 2G era. At that time, the mobile communications business is easy to make a lot of money. In particular, transnational mobile communication companies, benefited from the overlay of mobile communication and globalization, and embarked onto the peak.
In the design of the communication industry, 3G not only supports voice services, but also supports data services, allowing individual users to access the Internet through mobile phones, this innovation makes the entire industry to copy 2G success, but in fact, communication technology can only Let users use the Internet, but cannot bring enough industrial increments, 3G brings the growth of the telecom operator to increase income, but to obtain the debt brought by the license and spectrum resources.
Translience, 4G, mature, especially the innovation of mobile Internet companies, not only increase the user's information consumption, but also brought huge amount of investment in the capital market, forming a huge mobile Internet industry cake.
Unlike communication technology, Internet companies are personalized and innovative on the basis of standardized information services.
The communication industry is standardized + distributed, different operators use different manufacturers' equipment, but interface standards are consistent; Internet companies are centralized models, take fact standards, so the product can immediately realize the full network upgrade immediately after completion of the adjustment.
In constant upgrade iterations and fierce competition, Internet companies continue to improve the customer experience of the product, and gradually educate and transform customers until each of us is adapted to online shopping, mobile payment, mobile navigation and other new lifestyle. And habits.
The industrial dividend of the mobile Internet is ultimately shared by communication equipment, telecom operators, terminal manufacturers and mobile Internet companies. For telecom operators, although I watched a large piece of cake with Internet companies, let my own division ratio Dropping a lot, but it is flat, if there is no Internet enterprise join, there is no industrial increment, what is the traffic income of telecom operators?
In short, the digital success of 2C is the success of advanced technology, but it is necessary to have enough industrial incremental space. The space of the 2G era is naturally formed. It is the need to communicate between people and people; in the 4G era, high-speed data communication network and large-screen intelligent terminals provide infrastructure, mobile Internet innovation brings industrial increasing Export space.
Sending the success of this opportunity, is a suitable time point with the right time to accounger the industrial increment space, even the pig can fly, let alone those smart people.
2C business is difficult to support 5G market space
So according to this regular, can the 2C service bring enough industrial increments to 5G? After half a year of research and observation, I have pessimistic attitude towards this.
On the one hand, the development of personal digital business is close to the ceiling, and innovation is getting harder and harder.
For most personal applications, 4G provided data communication speed has substantially meet demand. Moreover, through these years, most of the Internet applications are now exhausted by customers.
Although there are new technical sectors such as Ar / VR, although there are new application scenarios such as unmanned driving, it takes a lot of time based on technical maturity and cost. Business development and popularity.
So what about 5G terminal?
I have to admit that the end market itself is a large cake. In this regard, I am "folding screen + 5G: Terminal manufacturer's" space competition ", the core point is: 5G mobile phone will become this year's terminal manufacturer Innovative main melody, the manufacturer will harvest the dividend of technicians, and on the other hand, it is to show its own technical reserves. But in the market, most of the people did not have a 5G mobile phone that would be purchased from 5G business.
Therefore, the current operator's 2C business design is still carried out around the innovation characteristics of communication technology. For example, the game acceleration package or the amount of acceleration package is to pay a higher network speed. In this way, there are some tunes of "not", but individuals think that there are two risks in the communications industry:
The first layer is whether the customer recognizes and accepts this business model, will it think this is a change in price and black? Once the customer complaints and questioning, how will industry regulators decisive? These two days have already passed the rumors that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reflects the 5G high-speed, requiring operators to 4G speed limits, and in the future, if operators are deliberately speed-up, can this black pot go out?
The second layer is the operator's homogenization mode, and better business design may be competed. Among the three operators, if someone provides a paid acceleration pack business, the competitor will not provide free accelerated resources in the package (such as two free acceleration twice a month, each one-hour), even directly accelerate Package and regular business bundle into a new package.
If the competitive advantage of a company is based on the supplier's ability, this competitive advantage is difficult to last; in fact, now, the three operators in the country have seriously constructed business and business design in 5G, which are largely because The three innovation ideas come from the same supplier. Same qualitative competition, how can I play in addition to the price war?
What's more, there are new players - radio and powerful. This new player who came into the foot will not have a new routine. Now no one can say it.
On the other hand, the 2C business is difficult to support enough market space because 5G is not so fast to cover the country.
Mobility is when the personal customer uses mobile communication, the customer is very concerned, the customer's default, in the process of mobile, the network should be continuously covered, communication is no perception can be automatically switched, 2G, 4G In this way, 5G should also be like this.
The objective difficulties in 5G Build Network:
First, 5G base station needs to be deployed more dense, which not only leads to investment investment, but also means a longer construction cycle, so it is impossible to cover 5G to 4G the same effect in the short term.
Second, 5G technical standards release time, the problem of product maturity, the difficulty of the network is objective, especially when the low-time delay is in the actual commercial business, will encounter a lot of unexpected Difficult, so operators are likely to take relative to conservative caution, and will not be able to rush.
Third, 5G high-speed low-time delay, also need to support large-scale transformation, if the transmission network, core network, access network, etc. can cause the overall network speed to decrease, performance is not up to standard.
There are still many practical problems I may not think of, will affect 5G's networking speed and actual effect. In this case, a relatively reasonable networking method is to build a test network in a particular area, and constantly improve and develop in the trial.
And this model does not meet the requirements of personal users' mobility. Let users have a 5G mobile phone to switch between 4G and 5G networks, and everyone will feel uncomfortable.
[Conclusion]
From the successful experience of the 2C business, then 5G technical features and development status, individuals believe that 5G successfully bet in personal customers, the risk is very large. However, it is unquestionable: Nowadays, we must start from the 2C business to drive the technology to continuously improve, promote the development and transition of the 4G time to 5G network. Read more
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