In this past few years, although the power reports and individual companies chased the apple, 5G was blown to the gods, and the public opinion formed China's 5G world leading concept. In fact, this is very worth discussing.
5G is over-tidy by media and companies
At the moment, 5G faced cover, power consumption, and cost three difficulties. In the industry, the 5G base station's short board is ridiculed to "coverage, cost, power consumption 3", which is 3 times cost, 3 times power consumption, 1/3 overlay.
To cover, the current 5G (medium frequency) base station is only 200 to 300 meters, and some communication vendors have called for cleaning of 2G, 3G spectrum, with low frequency deployment of 5G to improve coverage.
In the cost, the 5G base station is 3 times the 4G base station.
For power consumption, the 5G base station is about 3 times the power consumption of 4G base station. The reason why power consumption is so large because of the MIMO antenna violent stack, there is a need for a large number of tip radio frequency chips and supporting day-feed systems, heat dissipation systems, resulting in scoring power consumption.
Yang Jie, chairman of China Mobile, said in the GTI International Industry Summit, "The current 5G base station price is 2 times the investment of 4G base station, the power consumption is approximately 2.5-3 times".
Yang Fengyi, deputy director of China Technological Innovation Center, pointed out that the 5G base station typically consumes about 3,500 watts. In the same coverage, the 5G base station will reach 3-4 times that of 4 g, so the overall energy consumption of the 5G mobile network will be more than 9 times more than 4G. Even if you do not calculate the power supply transformation and site rental cost, only 9 times more of the electricity bills and procurement costs of the base station. This is true for operators who decline in profits.
Iron flow references a set of data, everyone will have more intuitive feelings.
Yang Fengyi said that the mobile base station of the three operators in 2018 consumes approximately 27 billion yuan, with a total electricity fee of about 24 billion yuan. "In the same coverage, the energy consumption of 5G network will reach 24 billion degrees, and the electricity bill will reach 216 billion yuan. "
In terms of profits, China Mobile was 117.8 billion in 2018, telecom profits were 21.2 billion yuan, and Unicom's profit was 10.2 billion yuan. It can be seen that if the 5G base station using the MIMO antenna will lead to the total profits of the year, it is not enough to pay for electricity bills.
Therefore, operators are exploring low cost, low power consumption networking mode, casting 64T / 64R to 8T / 8R, 4T / 4R or 2T / 2R (mostly deployed most of 8T / 8R, is carrying 2T2R) Progressive mode).
If the base station antenna is not changed to the electric tuning antenna mode, although the power consumption and cost are smaller than MIMO, the contrast 4G still has a gap, while the number of 5G base stations may still be 4 times, performance Also sharply decreased. Radio, electricity, deploying this low-cost, low-power networking mode, consumes 40M bandwidth, theoretical downline speed is 220-440Mbps, this network speed is not as good as 4G. Early 4G CAT 4 standard theory Down network speed is 150Mbps, 4G Cat 6 standard theory Down line speed is 300Mbps, 4G cat 12, CAT 13 standard Theory Down network speed 600Mbps, Unicom's 4G measured network speed reached 1.2Gbps.
It can be seen that this low-cost deployment model can only be said to be repeatedly deployed a 5G network with a network speed and 4G, and there is a suspicion of labor injury.
China 5G machine strength core components are weak
The iron flow is shallow, and 5G is removed into several parts.
One is the core components.
The second is manufacturing machine.
The third is the standard patent holdings.
For the core components, this is my country's short board, in CPU, GPU, DSP, FPGA, NAND, DRAM, RF, WiFi, optical communication chip, digital-to-analog converter / analog-to-digital converters, lasers, etc. Intel, Yingda, AMD, Gaotong, Boyu, Samsung, SK, Hercantle, Boyworks, Texas Instruments, Adi, Skyworks, qorvo, ADI, Skyworks, qorvo, NXP, Fini, NEO Photonics Waiting for companies to have a certain dependency. In 2018 and 2019, H Company imported chips exceeded 20 billion US dollars. Among them, in 2018, H companies imported from US imports reached 11 billion US dollars, and the import chip is $ 16 billion in 2019.
The whole machine manufacturing, this is China's strength, the entire industry has become China's H Company, Z company and foreign Ericsson, Nokia's four strong, and of course, Samsung has improved in these years, but the traditional four animal.
In terms of standard patents, compared to China-Europe, the US Motorola, IBM, ATT and other companies engage in WinMAX rollover, leading to US companies in the 4G era, the US enterprises are significantly improved in the 5G era.
In view of the 3G Times Qualcomm, a large Qualcomm of Qualcomm, the nausea of global communication enterprises, the global company is weighing in the 5G standard development, and it is unique to any company or the country, and the 5G era has become Sino-US. Ou Japan and South Korea Strong During the pattern, no one can achieve the status of Qualcomm in the 3G era.
In addition, patents are also divided by high-level, such as Ericsson, Nokia claims to have a 20%, 15% of WCDMA, but still honestly pays high tax transfers, the reason is that high gold quantity patent is high. It is unreliable to measure the number of words with patents.
It can be seen from it that China can't talk about the United States in 5G. The overall situation is strong, and the core components are weak. The patent is far from reaching Qualcomm to levy "high tax" level.
China's real advantage is policy and market
China has two people with two people in 5G, one is the strong support of the Chinese government, and the other is that the Chinese market is huge.
China Communications Enterprises can achieve today's achievements, in addition to the hard struggle of the whole industry, and the Chinese government is related to the special protection policy of the China government industry, China and foreign power in 1999-2001, the various power of China's accession to the WTO super game, at the time The Minister of Information Industry Wu Kaichi took the mainstream opinion, and resolutely opposed the over-open business of the telecom industry, stressed that if the information security, the national security is unsupported, insist that the foreign capital absolute holding domestic telecommunications equipment merchants, domestic telecom equipment procurement must Leave a certain share to the ethnic telecom equipment enterprises, not allowing foreign investment monopoly.
As a result, H, ZTE, etc. can be swallowed by multinational corporations at first, and the germination of the ethnic telecom equipment is not to be reached. Thereafter, H is lacking funds in development, and early stages have also received financing support from telecommunications companies. And the early domestic equipment has a lot of problems, but under the will, operators have hard scalp, purchasing domestic equipment to support domestic manufacturers, and find problems in use, solve problems, and achieve screw improvement, completion from can't use it, To be able to use it, it is easy to use. This allows Chinese equipment to accumulate the first barrel of gold; with this foundation, we can enter Yiafei, accumulating the strength of challenging the multinational giants.
In the expansion of overseas markets, state-owned banks' policy loans have played a vital role. H and ZTE can be slightly signed overseas in the past few years, mainly from the expansion of national policies and Chinese business networks.
According to the disclosure, since 2004, state-owned banks such as national development banks, China Import and Export Bank have provided high export credit to H, ZTE, which will lead to the European Suporiogram.
With the national opening example, from 2004 to 2009, the customer provided $ 10 billion credit line to H, after the expiration of 2009, it increased this amount to $ 30 billion. At the same time, in the middle of 2010, Hu Qunkun, the Vice President of H, called H 's customers a total of 10 billion US dollars in the country. Similarly, the National Development and ZTE also signed a $ 15 billion "Development Financial Cooperation Agreement", mainly to meet the financing needs of overseas customers in the purchase of ZTE and related technical services. In other words, H and ZTE expands overseas, highly dependent on national policies, which is equivalent to overseas customers, even if they are ashamed, and can borrow money from Chinese banks to buy H and ZTE.
Due to the face of the Chinese government's combination of boxing, Western countries can only use "double anti-" investigation and "mouth gun" to deal with - the President of the US Import and Export Bank, Hawhberg, who is in the case, one of the growths of H growth is It has received support for $ 30 billion credit quota from national development banks, which allows customers to provide customers with more favorable tariffs than competitors.
Take history, the Chinese government supports, is impossible to give any Western countries.
Take later in the Chinese market, it has been introduced before, in the 4G era, China's base station has exceeded 70% of the world. Since the 5G base station covers small, the network cost and maintenance cost is expensive, and Western national operators have no power to popularize the 5G network, and the Chinese operator will achieve 5G continuous coverage under the administrative directive.
At the moment, in the era of the post-epidemic, in order to stimulate the economy, the state has carried out new infrastructure, which is equal to national printed money investment 5G, although it will bring a certain degree of inflation, and further promote the rise in housing prices, but it can be huge for 5G construction Pushing effect.
Therefore, in the 5G era, the proportion of the number of 5G base stations in China VS foreign 5G base station will be more extreme than 4G era, and this trillion-level market scale is unable to copy anywhere in the world. (Of course, the integration of the iron flow is that at this stage, there should be small scale promotion, improve improvement technology, etc. After solving 3 times cost, three times power consumption, one-third of the problem, then large scale, large-scale promotion In immature technology will only lead to resources, and can only make interest groups. China 4G construction is better than foreign years, don't you still make a good results?)
Responsible Editor: PJ, Reading
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