"According to Gartner data, the total revenue of the global semiconductor market in 2018 was $476.7 billion, an increase of 13.4% over 2017. However, after entering the second half of 2018, the inventory of chip manufacturers approached the highest level in a decade, the market demand for semiconductor equipment also slowed significantly, and manufacturers began to reduce semiconductor investment expenses. Based on this situation, IC insights expects that the semiconductor industry will enter a low business cycle in 2019, and the annual growth rate may be maintained at 4% - 6%, with a year-on-year decrease of nearly 10 percentage points. Including analysts and enterprises also expressed a pessimistic attitude towards the future of semiconductors.
In the past few months, major semiconductor manufacturers have also successively released their fourth quarter report of 2018 and their expectations for the first quarter of 2019. Perhaps, from their industry, we can see some real changes in the market.
Intel
According to Intel's financial report, the company's business has developed a total of six departments: DCG data center, CCG client computing, iotg Internet of things, NSG flash memory, PSG programmable computing department and Mobileye automatic driving department. In the third quarter of 2018, Intel's revenue was about US $19.2 billion. In the fourth quarter of the same year, the revenue was US $18.7 billion, a month on month decrease of 2.6%.
Intel's revenue growth in the third quarter was based on the growth of PC and data centric business. However, this strong demand did not continue to the fourth quarter. In addition, Intel's revenue fell in the fourth quarter due to the tense Sino US trade situation in the fourth quarter. This decline also affected Intel's expectations for the first quarter of 2019.
According to Intel's fourth quarter and full year report, the company expects total revenue of about $16 billion in the first quarter of 2019. This figure is basically the same as Intel's revenue in the first quarter of 2018 (the revenue in the first quarter of 2018 was US $16.1 billion).
It is reported that Intel's "data centric" business (excluding McAfee) accounted for 48% and PC business accounted for 52% in 2018. In the future, with the landing of artificial intelligence related applications and the demand for cloud computing, Intel's "data centric" business will account for an increasing proportion of revenue. In addition, Intel's frequent ticket skipping 10nm process finally ushered in good news on CES in 2019 - ice lake processor of 10nm process. However, from its development roadmap, the capacity release of Intel's 10nm products may be further postponed to the second half of 2019 or even 2020. In addition, the price of storage products is periodically affected, and its revenue will also be affected to some extent. However, because Intel's investment involves many semiconductor products, Intel may be able to return to the top of the semiconductor list this year. 2019 is still a challenging year for Intel.
Samsung
Samsung Electronics' business is divided into four parts: Consumer Electronics (CE), information technology and mobile communications ("Im"), device solutions ("DS") and Harman. In the third quarter of 2018, the revenue of Samsung Electronics was about 65.46 trillion won. In the fourth quarter of the same year, the revenue was 59.27 trillion won, down 9.4% month on month.
Samsung benefited from the continuous growth of memory business in the third quarter, and its operating profit reached a quarterly high. The strong momentum of storage business and OLED is the main source of revenue in the third quarter. However, in the fourth quarter, Samsung's fourth quarter revenue report was not ideal due to the decline in demand for memory chips, the deterioration of business profitability and the decline in smartphone sales.
Recently, Samsung Electronics showed in a document submitted to the regulatory authorities that the price of display panels fell more than expected due to the capacity expansion of other panel manufacturers; Due to the sluggish demand, the price of memory chips also fell more than expected. In this regard, according to the Economic Observer network, Samsung Electronics also issued a profit warning, saying that its first quarter performance may be lower than market expectations, and its operating revenue may decline by 12%.
Indeed, in mid-2019, Samsung Electronics may be hit hard by the performance of the storage business. But in addition, we also see the positive layout of Samsung Electronics in wafer foundry. If Samsung Electronics can win the reputation of "raising the market share of wafer foundry from the fourth place to the second place, surpassing liandian and lattice core" last year in 2019, and its continuous investment in 7Nm process, perhaps this advantage can also alleviate the downward trend of revenue faced by Samsung Electronics in 2019. At the same time, we can't forget that the folding screen 5g mobile phone, 5g related products and flexible screen recently released by Samsung Electronics may also become the revenue pillar of Samsung Electronics in 2019.
hynix
Sk Hynix now mainly consists of DRAM, NAND and SSD. In order to meet the future, SK Hynix also focuses on developing next-generation memory technologies, such as PC ram, STT-MRAM and ReRAM. In the third quarter of 2018, SK Hynix's revenue was about US $10 billion. In the fourth quarter of the same year, the revenue was US $8.8 billion, down about 12% month on month.
80% of SK Hynix's revenue comes from DRAM, and NAND flash accounts for only 18%. In the third quarter, the rising trend of DRAM price has slowed down, and the price of NAND flash continues to decline, but the demand in the server market continues to be strong. In addition, the third quarter is the peak sales season in the consumer market, which also increases the demand for NAND flash with larger capacity. Therefore, it has driven a wave of increase in turnover. However, from the fourth quarter, DRAM prices continued to fall, and major manufacturers began to clean up inventory, which was one of the reasons why SK Hynix suffered a Waterloo in its revenue in this quarter.
According to the latest survey of Jibang consulting semiconductor research center, in Q1 2019, due to the oversupply of the market, most transactions in DRAM industry have been changed to monthly deals, and the price also fell sharply in February. The quarterly decline has been adjusted from the initially estimated 25% to nearly 30%, which will be the largest decline in a single quarter since 2011. Although SK Hynix did not announce its expectation for the first quarter of 2019, from the research of market institutions, it also made us sweat for its financial report in the first quarter.
As we all know, storage products are cyclical. Although large storage plants may have to spend the severe winter in the next year, this can not stop their expectations for the future. According to a Reuters report in February, SK Hynix plans to build a semiconductor industrial zone in South Korea. After 2022, it will invest 120 trillion won (about 107 billion US dollars) to build four wafer factories in Longren City, 40 kilometers south of Seoul, in order to maintain its competitive advantage.
Meguiar
Micron manufactures and markets DRAM, NAND flash memory, CMOS image sensors, other semiconductor components and memory modules for cutting-edge computing, consumer goods, networks and mobile portable products. At present, the company is mainly composed of four departments: cnbu, MBU, SBU and EBU. According to the first quarter financial report of Meguiar technology in fiscal 2019, the first quarter revenue of Meguiar technology was US $7.913 billion. The results of the second quarter (as of February 28) also showed that Meguiar's revenue fell to $5.835 billion, down 26.3% from the previous quarter, the first recession in more than two years.
As a large storage product manufacturer, Meguiar has not been able to avoid changes in the market environment. Although Meguiar's Q1 revenue still maintained growth, the growth was less than expected. Therefore, Meguiar's performance was also greatly impacted by market prices, and there were constant news of Meguiar's factory production reduction in 2018.
Meanwhile, Meguiar also predicts the revenue in the third quarter of fiscal 2019. The company expects its revenue to continuously decline by about 17% to US $4.65 billion. Compared with Meguiar's single quarter revenue of $7.8 billion in the third quarter of last year, it can be said that it is a sky and a ground. At that time, behind Meguiar's strong revenue was the sharp rise in the price and capacity of memory chips. Now such performance, this pot still needs to store market changes.
broadcom
At present, Broadcom has four product departments: wired communication infrastructure department, wireless communication department, enterprise storage business and other product departments. In the fourth quarter of 2018, the net revenue of Broadcom was US $5.444 billion, an increase of 8% compared with us $5.063 billion in the previous quarter.
The growth of Broadcom in the third quarter was mainly driven by the demand of data center, which promoted the growth of more than 50% of its company's consolidated revenue, which also continued in the fourth quarter. In addition, in the fourth quarter, the revenue of Broadcom's wireless communication department was $1.698 billion, down 5% from $1.796 billion in the same period last year.
According to the company's financial report for the first quarter of fiscal 2019, the company's revenue in the quarter was US $5.789 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9% (the revenue in the first quarter of fiscal 2018 was US $5.327 billion).
As we all know, Broadcom is also one of Apple's suppliers. At the beginning of 2019, Apple's series of price cuts and the saturation trend of China's mobile phone market make apple not optimistic in 2019, which may also have some impact on Broadcom. In addition, the better side is that in 2018, Broadcom acquired CA technologies, an American software manufacturer, for us $19 billion in order to diversify its revenue stream after the semiconductor business cools down. In 2019, with the business integration of Broadcom and Ca, the performance of its infrastructure software department is worth looking forward to. Or maybe Broadcom will launch any new acquisition plan in 2019 to maintain the growth of its revenue.
Texas Instruments
Ti focuses on developing analog chips and embedded processors, which account for more than 80% of TI's total revenue. In addition, another business of Ti is DLP products. In the third quarter of 2018, TI's revenue was about $4.26 billion. In the fourth quarter of the same year, the revenue was US $3.72 billion, down about 13% month on month.
Its third quarter financial report data show that in TI's core business, the operating revenue of simulation business is 2907 (US $million); The operating revenue of embedded processing business is 894 (US $million). In the fourth quarter, the operating revenue of simulation products was 2638 (US $million), down 9% month on month; The operating revenue of embedded processing products was 791, down 12% month on month. Texas Instruments believes that this is caused by the slowdown in the demand for the company's products in most markets.
This slowing trend also makes the company's expectation for the first quarter of 2019 not particularly optimistic. The company believes that the operating revenue in Q1 2019 ranges from US $3.34 billion to US $3.62 billion. This figure is slightly lower than the revenue of $3.79 billion in the same period last year.
With the rise of emerging fields, more and more electronic components have been applied to the field of industry and automobile. These two areas have also become the focus of TI's development. In 2017, these two areas accounted for 54% of TI's total revenue. At the same time, through the financial reports of Texas Instruments in the second two quarters of 2018, it is not difficult to find that simulation products account for most of the company's revenue. Throughout the annual revenue report of Texas Instruments in 2018, the revenue of its analog products increased by 9% compared with the same period last year, and the operating profit increased by 14% year-on-year; The annual revenue of embedded products increased by only 2% year-on-year.
The simulation market is favored by the market, which is also the advantage of TI's development in 2019.
In terms of sub sectors, the growth rate of analog products for automotive use was the fastest in 2018, ranking third among the 33 categories of integrated circuit products counted by WSTS. Ti is committed to the application of automotive products, which also provides a good market environment for the development of Ti in 2019. At the same time, in order to ensure profits, Ti has also established a 12 inch wafer factory to produce analog chips to reduce costs.
Italian French semiconductor
According to product division, STMicroelectronics has three departments: automotive products and discrete device products (ADG) ， Simulator, MEMS and sensor products (AMS), microcontroller and digital IC products (MDG). In the third quarter of 2018, the revenue of Italian French semiconductor was about US $2.52 billion. In the fourth quarter of the same year, the revenue was US $2.65 billion, up 5% month on month.
The revenue of Italian French semiconductor in the third quarter benefited from the strong growth momentum of sales revenue of image products, power discrete devices and automotive products, driving the revenue to increase by 18.1% year-on-year. This momentum also continued into the fourth quarter. In this quarter, all products of automobile and discrete device products department, image products department and digital products department achieved double-digit growth, with a month on month growth of 7.3%. At the same time, the company also said that the microcontroller will face the weak market conditions in China and some inventory correction pressure.
The business outlook for the first quarter of 2019 has a median net revenue of about US $2.1 billion, a decrease of about 5.7% compared with the revenue of US $2.23 billion in the same period last year.
Like Texas Instruments, STMicroelectronics is also focused on the industrial and automotive markets. In November 2018, Jean Marc Chery had his first in-depth communication with Chinese media, and Chery talked about the changes in MCU demand. He believes that the development of IOT, 5g, automobile, industry and smart city will promote the progress of Italian French semiconductor. He predicts that the growth rate of semiconductor market will be between 4% - 6% next year, and said that the automobile and industrial markets are the two most promising markets of St.
NXP
NXP semiconductor focuses on four major markets: automotive electronics, industrial & IOT, mobile phones, communications & infrastructure. In the third quarter of 2018, NXP's revenue was about US $2.445 billion, and in the fourth quarter of the same year, the revenue was US $2.4 billion, unchanged month on month.
In the third quarter, the transaction between NXP and Qualcomm failed and received a $2 billion breakup fee, which made a considerable profit in the quarter. As the world's largest manufacturer of automotive semiconductors and the market leader of automotive semiconductor solutions and general microcontrollers (MCU), NXP's total revenue in 2018 also increased by more than 5% in the automotive and safety connection business.
The company's revenue in the first quarter of 2019 was US $2.02 billion to US $2.16 billion, slightly lower than that of US $2.27 billion in the same period last year.
At the same time, in its fourth quarter report, we also got such a message: from January 1, 2019, NXP will start to provide supplementary revenue information through terminal markets, including automobile, industry and Internet of things, mobile, communication infrastructure and others. These areas are the hot trends in the current market. With its excellent performance in automotive electronics, NXP may get a good return in 2019.
MediaTek
At the initial stage, MediaTek's main products were CD-ROM chipsets. Since 2000, it has invested in the research and development of wireless communication baseband and and RF chip, and in 2003
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